A few arcane technical deficiencies in Huge Kelly’s piece on the
Marrickville by-election yesterday has generated a furious essay to
Crikey by serial pedant and ABC Election Analyst Antony Green. If you really want
to know why Labor lost control of Marrickville Council, and also why
some in the NSW Right might be almost as happy if Carmel Tebbutt loses
her attempt to transfer to the lower house, then check out his screed
here. This is one for those who really like the numbers:

Dear
Crikey,

While Hugo Kelly is generally right in yesterday’s
e-mail about the by-election hurdles facing the new Iemma government, there are
several aspects of his analysis of Marrickville that are not entirely correct.
In particular, Labor’s loss of control of Marrickville council at the 2004
local government elections was not due to being out polled by the Greens, but
thanks rather to a huge own-goal in re-drawing ward boundaries.

While
Morris Iemma takes office as premier at a time when the Labor Party has not
been doing well in the polls, it has not suffered the massive derision that
greeted Unsworth’s elevation to the premiership. The interest in Maroubra and
Macquarie Fields is the size of the swing to the Liberals. But don’t use that
measure in Marrickville.

The real
challenge is the Greens. In two-party terms versus the Liberals, Labor’s margin
is a whopping 31.5%. But the Liberal primary vote in 2003 was just 12.8% and
only 13.5% in 1999. At both elections, Labor’s real opponent was the Greens.

Read more of Antony Green’s thoughts here.