Could Malcolm Turnbull really be planning the “September surprise” everyone’s been talking about? Next week might be the closest to a political syzygy he’s likely to get. The Longman byelection is looking better by the day. Pauline Hanson, citing illness, has stopped campaigning — and how much more Aussie can you get than taking a sickie the last week of a campaign? — giving a clearer run. If Turnbull can win a byelection from an opposition-held seat, them’s big bragging rights.
Secondly, the ALP is in real disarray. The battle in Victoria between the Stability Pact Left and Right, and the renegade Industrial Left-Centre Unity faction is getting out of control, with the more feral elements of the latter grouping tearing up the joint – even though Shorten is a member of that grouping. Because of that undermining, the Albanese challenge is well under way. There would have to be real doubt as to whether Labor could do the usual act of fully pulling itself together for the four-five weeks of a snap campaign.
There would have to be a huge temptation for Turnbull to go now, and it would have to be September 1 or 8, before the football finals seasons kick in, going through to mid-October after that, the Victorian elections, Christmas, summer, and the New South Wales election in March. So it would have to be soon. But the problem for Turnbull is that the byelections present a paradox: if he gets a win in Longman, there’s real evidence that a win is there. But such a win lessens the need for an election. If the Coalition loses all five, then the status quo ante remains – and Turnbull could say that the instability can’t go on, and there must be an election. Maybe the sweet spot would be a near victory in Longman, suggesting success, but prompting a call that “the chaos must end”. Difficult call, and we know one thing about Malcolm: when the going gets tough … he screws up completely. Surprise!
Should Turnbull call a snap election in September? Write to us at boss@crikey.com.au
Even though I consider the above scribbling to be almost entirely claptrap, I do none the less hope that Turnbull goes as early as possible….for everyone’s sake.
Rabid, a change of Labor leadership would add a bit of spice. Where I come from (the electorate of Herbert at Townsville, Australia’s most marginal seat), Clive Palmer is already spending up big on radio and TV. He’s going to have a crack at getting elected again and why not? Labor’s all over the shop, Liberals are at each others throats in Queensland, Pauline Hanson’s not even in the room – the whole circus is wide open.
Charlie, if Clive Palmer’s the answer, what was the question?
The question was ‘How stupid are we?’
Charlie…lets get one thing straight…there ISN’T going to be a challenge to Bill Shorten before the next election! I think I’m right in saying it requires 75% of the caucus to even bring on a vote. All these so-called journalists and most commentators? Just trying to continue with Talcum’s ‘Kill Bill’ scenario.
Bill Shorten leads a united team, with good POLICIES…which is what the election will be all about. Further, Bill has lead the party to record poll results for the last 37 fortnightly Newspolls…along with similar results from Essential and others. Any government is NOT only about the leader…NO ONE votes for the PM, only for their local candidate of whatever party they choose. People need to have a very good look at who makes up the team.
I just wish everyone would see this ‘leadership’ thingy for what it is…CRAP!!
Charlie you don’t know the rules about changing the Labor leader do you?
Yeah, interesting times. GR hasn’t mentioned the idle threats from Joyce and Abbott from some months ago that if the polls haven’t ‘turned around’ (definition pending) by Christmas then the leadership will be on the table. Given that both are as marginalised as they have ever been, that may be a very idle threat.
But timing wise it’s a cluttered field. I love that Australia has to take into account footy finals season when deciding election timing. How Australian is that!
Seems not so long ago that we were saddled with the current version of an LNP govt. It would be good to get rid of them sooner rather than later, but the question still remains – Why is anyone contemplating voting them back in?
On the other hand, Labor.
A record number of independents in House of Reps wouldn’t be a bad thing, except most of them will be nitwits, PHON candidates and other fringe dwellers voting LNP 99% of the time. There aren’t many Wilkie’s, Sharkies and that other independent woman in Victoria around. (sorry, forgotten her name, got rid of Sophie Mirabella, to my undying gratitude)
Cathy McGowan
That’s the one, thanks Paul
A win in Longman would prove absolutely zilch, either way. Labor gained the seat on a hyper-small margin, & largely off the back of preferences from One Nation voters…..which cannot be guaranteed this time around. Losing Braddon would be slightly more telling, but no guarantee of victory for Malcontent at the Federal level.
Still, I hope he does go in September, so we can kick his butt out of the PM’s office for good.
Damn true Marcus. Bring on the Federal election. Kick the LNP to the kerb.
Seems to me that the only thing this article highlights is the naked self-interest of our politicians. Nothing about what good can be done for the nation, just sneaky and dirty manipulations on best how to keep their own snouts in the trough.
I take great comfort from the last 10 words.
Unfortunately, then I look at bumBoil Shlernt and his pack of apparatchiks, seat polishers & chancers.
Poor Bugger, my Country.