The Murdoch press and the right wing shock jocks might be salivating about decapitating Malcolm Turnbull but the man trying to govern from the sensible centre has a number of key cards at his disposal which should see him survive until May next year.
A veteran of many media and corporate takeover battles, the PM is already tactically war gaming to good effect. The first sensible move was to not criticise Peter Dutton yesterday and to not demand the resignations of those Ministers who voted for Dutton.
Then he very cleverly leveraged up what might be called the “payroll” effect — which involves many millions of dollars in Coalition ministerial salaries that would be lost with an early election, as opposed to going full term until May.
As Julie Bishop explained to Fran Kelly on Radio National this morning, several of the Dutton supporters have opted to keep their ministerial salaries and pledge support for the PM.
All of these men — including Greg Hunt, Michael Sukkar, Alan Tudge, Steve Ciobo, Zed Seselja, Angus Taylor and Michael Keenan — will now have to face their electors and explain what the hell they were doing trying to trigger an early election which would wipe out the Coalition and potentially deliver Labor and the Greens control of both houses.
Do former Victorian moderates like Hunt and Tudge really want to potentially own the destruction of the modern Liberal Party as we know it? Hunt appears to be positioning for leadership advantage in opposition, as he knows that Dutton will probably lose his seat in the upcoming Labor landslide.
By pitching himself to be Dutton’s deputy, Hunt would leapfrog the likes of Josh Frydenberg and Christian Porter in future leadership deliberations.
However, Hunt will look greedy and unprincipled if he retains the ministerial salary but refuses to publicly pledge to support the PM in an environment where the voters are sick to death of endless coups and dysfunction.
Dutton’s credibility has already been damaged by his broken promise from Saturday when he pledged support for the PM and then tried to destroy him on Tuesday morning. Everyone remembers all those Tony Abbott lines about respecting the office of Prime Minister and not launching coups.
Dutton also lacks key corporate support. The business community wants energy policy certainty but instead Dutton is going to wreck that and probably also trigger a recession by slashing immigration. When the AFR is editorialising that Dutton is tainted by his “monotone terseness”, he will struggle to win support.
Indeed, a Dutton prime ministership would almost certainly deliver an electoral wipe-out in Melbourne and parts of Sydney. Eddie McGuire said as much after his Dutton interview this morning, pointing out that Dutton boycotted Kevin Rudd’s apology to the Stolen Generation.
Victorian Dutton supporters like Hunt, Kevin Andrews and Michael Sukkar will be in danger of losing their Melbourne seats, as will Tony Abbott in New South Wales.
The two other key points of leverage that Turnbull holds are the ability to determine the election date and his own financial capacity to bankroll the next Liberal campaign or start his own party. If he gave himself a two month campaign, the Malcolm Turnbull Sensible Centre party could easily win a large number of seats off the Coalition in Victoria and NSW and potentially a couple off Labor and the Greens.
Can you image the revenge enjoyed if Turnbull candidates defeated Kevin Andrews, Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton, off the back of Labor and Greens preferences?
Assuming Turnbull survives today and tomorrow, the other contest to be resolved before parliament resumes on September 10 will be on policy.
Dutton was out there this morning pitching a royal commission into energy and fuel prices and GST relief on power prices during his Triple M interview in Melbourne after just 90 minutes of sleep.
The banking royal commission is hugely popular with the public so Turnbull does have the option of flagging his personal preference for the next royal commission to be commenced after the next election.
How about Australia’s world record $25 billion a year in gambling losses, which is continuing to sky rocket with multinational foreign bookmakers deluging ads on TV and kids getting addicted to the screen, not to mention the $15 billion a year lost on Australia’s 200,000 poker machines?
With the CFMMEU, Catholic Church and Labor Party all active participants in Australia’s pokies industry, such a move would line up a number of the Coalition’s current enemies, plus appeal to many traditional conservative Coalition MPs concerned about what gambling addiction is doing to families.
Does Turnbull still have a few tricks up his sleeve? Write to boss@crikey.com.au and let us know what you think.
An almost Murpharoo like attempt to spin a gold web out of Turnbulls shit.
This is probably the single silliest article I’ve yet to read on this site. “tactically war gaming to good effect” is the champagne comedy of all political comments.
Christ almighty Mayne Turnbull is DEAD politically, the kindest thing he can do is Resign, head for the GG & call an election this rabble are going to wreck the country some of you Liberals believe any old Flannel
Where you one of the chorus shouting for Gillard to go over what, she got more done with a hung Parliament than Turnbull has achieved in his time in office.
This past week he has junked everything he stood for to save his own worthless arse & he is war gaming please
Yep!
Well, Mr Mayne, I disagree with most of what you’ve written but you’ve put your cards on the table forthrightly- I trust if this all goes pear-shaped that you won’t just try to pretend you never said it, the way most other puundits both here and elsewhere are currently doing about their “Turnbull is recovering!” “Turnbull has won a great victory on the NEG” early triumphalisms.
FWIW, the bits I disagree with are:
“but the man trying to govern from the sensible centre” – I haven’t seen any evidence of this, no matter how much the media tries to tell us it’s true. This is the man whose first move on everything is attack Labor, attack “the left”. The man who vehemently tried to protect the banks from a royal commission, viciously attacked renewable energy targets, viciously attacked proposals to make changes to negative gearing, whose signature policy was a huge corporate tax cut with no other justification than the old “trickle down” effect to create jobs and wages. Out of all of this, what’s the sensible centre?
Malcolm Turnbull in the “sensible centre” is the big lie of the last 5 years of Australian politics for mine and every pundit who has pushed it needs to take a good hard look at themselves and what they consider to be the “centre”
“The first sensible move was to not criticise Peter Dutton yesterday and to not demand the resignations of those Ministers who voted for Dutton.” – Looks like weakness to me. It is not going to stop Dutton
“Then he very cleverly leveraged up what might be called the “payroll” effect — which involves many millions of dollars in Coalition ministerial salaries that would be lost with an early election, as opposed to going full term until May.” – This is the most likely thing to save Turnbull yes, the venal greed of Coalition ministers wanting to keep getting paid. Not actually anything Turnbull is doing, and I would hesitate to call it clever.
“Dutton’s credibility has already been damaged by his broken promise from Saturday when he pledged support for the PM and then tried to destroy him on Tuesday morning. ” – Damaged with who? I haven’t yet heard anyone care about that.
“Dutton also lacks key corporate support.” – His support doesn’t care. Also business will shamefully fall into line behind the Liberal Party independently of leader no matter what noises are made now. You say they want certainty? They HAD certainty, under the ALP, and they gave it up because they want a government that will keep a lid on wages and conditions, a government which will ensure people get fined more for protesting than for wage theft (Also you’re ignoring the possibility of a Morrison compromise-candidate challenge, and he WOULD have corporate support).
“If he gave himself a two month campaign, the Malcolm Turnbull Sensible Centre party could easily win a large number of seats off the Coalition in Victoria and NSW and potentially a couple off Labor and the Greens.” – This is really getting into fantasy land stuff. I will come here with a grovelling apology to you if Turnbull leaves the Libs and does a Teddy Roosevelt Bull Moose Party thing let alone if he is actually successful at it. People have seen 3 years of Prime Minister Turnbull, and it has been hopeless. “Oh, THIS time I get to do things my way, trust me”. Pffft.
So tired of pundit class fetishising of Malcolm Turnbull. His record as a fixer for Packer criticised by the courts, his role in HIH, his actions as a Howard minister (the notorious rain-making grant to a crony, for example), his actions as Opposition Leader, his role wrecking the NBN, and then his useless turn as PM, they all speak far louder than some honey’d words on Q&A and whatever personal charm he exerts on people in person (at least the people he’s not loudly bullying!).
Well said.
‘“Then he very cleverly leveraged up what might be called the “payroll” effect — which involves many millions of dollars in Coalition ministerial salaries that would be lost with an early election, as opposed to going full term until May.” – This is the most likely thing to save Turnbull yes, the venal greed of Coalition ministers wanting to keep getting paid. Not actually anything Turnbull is doing, and I would hesitate to call it clever.’
It says a lot that people who are elected to a 3 year term in Parliament (or 6 years for Senators) think they are going to have that job forever.
‘“Dutton’s credibility has already been damaged by his broken promise from Saturday when he pledged support for the PM and then tried to destroy him on Tuesday morning. ” – Damaged with who? I haven’t yet heard anyone care about that.’
Did anybody even believe Dutton’s promise? I doubt it.
Indeed, given that “He has my complete support” has in politics openly meant “I am going to cut him dead within the week” (it also means this when it comes to football coaches) since Yes Minister if not before, it could be argued he was just being a man of his word…
From Yes Minister “It is necessary to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”
Front, back, sideways or dropped upon from a great height is irrelevant so long as the end, his, is achieved.
Preferably asap.
Every word Arky, Every word! I am with you. One question, what on earth are these supposed political pundits taking, that creates such cognitive dissonance, that so discombobulates rational/critical analysis of the facts?
Mayne is usually sensible, but he must have mulled up before writing this tripe.
The line that got me was “Victorian Dutton supporters like Hunt, Kevin Andrews and Michael Sukkar will be in danger of losing their Melbourne seats, as will Tony Abbott in New South Wales.” Really? I wish it were so as I share Mayne’s strong antipathy towards Andrews, in particular, as well as the other three he’s listed. But it would be a totally overwhelming, almost unimaginable landslide that took them all out.
I’m not entirely sure about this conventional wisdom of Dutton losing the furniture in Victoria (and certainly not in NSW; to me Dutton seems very well suited to the West Sydney marginals).
Most of Victoria doesn’t actually know who he is, rusted on politics junkies and Sudanese migrant organisations aside.
Yes, ABBOTT was toxic to the Victorian Libs and the numbers were clear on that, but Abbott was well known and hated already.
It remains arguable by the Dutton side that any Vic losses would be offset by holding onto the Queensland marginals and trying to grab a couple of marginals from the ALP (both in Queensland and Emma Husar’s seat in NSW, to begin with, and perhaps Melbourne Ports with Danby leaving, that will be volatile).
Arky, do you think the Labor Party is going to let Dutton remain ‘unknown’ to those people who supposedly don’t know him yet. I doubt there are that many that don’t know him, and he is a divisive man.
Labor ads through a campaign showing him making jokes about Pacific Islands sinking into the ocean, the various debacles in health, and many other examples will make him a known commodity. It’s in Labor’s interests to make sure he is known.
And there may be a few seats in Sydney’s west which would be attracted to him, but I doubt it is many and favour that argument that anythings he picks up on the swing he loses double on the round-about.
NSW is a bit more than western Sydney marginals and the underlying assumption that they are attracted to race-baiting policies. There are a number of north coast and south coast seats and just over the ranges that might also fall to Labor.
A few dozen photos of Dutton and Abbott smirking together should do the trick
No, of course not, but there will also be a pro-Dutton campaign run from the right with all their media clout (at least if he wins and not Morrison), and it’s easier to change minds that don’t have a set in stone opinion yet.
I’m not saying I think Dutton would do well, just that it isn’t as cut and dried as some commentators make out.
Great response Arky –
TIM: A blinding omission on the smirking front. I tender, with respect, Scott Morrison, whose smirk actively challenges the efforts of a previous treasurer of the John Howard government, Peter Costello.
“How cash, profile and coup fatigue will save Malcolm Turnbull”
Be honest, the guy is toast.
And the government is a goner too.
Dutton AKA Reinhard Tristan Eugen Heydrich
As the saying goes: “If my Aunty had balls she’d be my uncle”. I think you should have added at the end Mr Mayne…… However, considering his political nous track record, don’t hold your breath for any of the above.
God,
I hope so!!