With the announced non-contest of Chisholm by Julia Banks, the question is starting to be asked: could Labor keep it on track for the next X months and get themselves a landslide?
I don’t doubt Banks’s account that she was bullied and intimidated last week and before; she joined the nasty party after all. Perhaps this one-time corporate lawyer for Big Pharma (Glaxo) among others, might now have more insight into the nature and root of bourgeois power.
And surely this brave exit on principle has nothing at all to do with the likelihood that Chocolate Churchill Jesus himself could not hold Chisholm — in Melbourne’s leafy Eastern suburbs — for the Libs in 2019. We may well see a few more resignations on principle from the marginal marches in the months to come. Does this steady crumbling away, the pitter patter of tiny little political careers falling like rock, serve as the announcement of a possible landslide to Labor and other parties in 2019?
Labor will not hold its post-spill, 56-44 two-party-preferred margin for all that time; but it may well wander away and then come back to it. The pressure from the “brown right” — coal and camps — will not let up on Morrison, and Morrison’s early priorities should not fill one with confidence. The only thing more petty than the Australia pins was Morrison’s announcement that he wore it to be reminded whose side he was on. Yeah, OK. This was followed by — what, by envoys? What the hell is an envoy? To Indigenous people? The right have been telling us for a decade that we are all one people so there can’t be a treaty, etc, etc. But treaties are exactly what envoys — from the French envoi, someone or something sent — were empowered to negotiate.
It’s just nuts, designed for the petty interests of intra-Coalition deals, and the sort of thing that convinces the public that a leader isn’t serious. That may be a warning sign. Morrison is a former tourism peak body and state agency executive, and I suspect that piloting pointless untestable nonsense is most of such a person’s job description. He appears to have been an able minister. But that’s a different thing to being a leader. Admit it. “Drought envoy”, as well as being a great band name, is a little bit “Sir Prince Phillip” isn’t it? Just a little bit.
If Morrison proves to be a dud, not up to the unique role of national leader, then one presumes that after a period of rallying, the numbers would tank again as the election loomed. Up to a dozen Libs would quit, to avoid the taint of a stonking loss, thus making that loss all the more certain in that seat. If Morrison moves to the right to appease the brown right then a series of independent liberals will be running in half a dozen key seats, maybe more. They could win several of those seats, or the Greens could even take them, with a four-way split.
Yes, a lot has to go well for that to happen for Labor. And the thought of an arrogant, swaggering Labor does not fill one with confidence. Give me a hung parliament anytime. But if it did happen, then Labor could have the real possibility of six or nine years in power, even in these fractious times. That would take us to the late 2020s, and by the time the Coalition — if there were still a Coalition — was ready to return, the socio-cultural progressive drift of Australia would have continued apace. If Abbott, Abetz and Co think it’s tough to uphold social conservatism now, see what it’s like coming out of the tunnel in 2028.
By turning Turnbull’s late-stage turnaround into a potential rout, the brown right might have created a disaster far beyond a single election loss, and all based on their delusion that there’s a solid silent majority for them out there. Of course that progressive drift may not be comprehensive; indeed it may be wholly paradoxical. One could imagine that economic shifts, communal tensions etc, might spread anti-immigration, and even ethno-nationalist politics to a wide section of the population, including many progressive people.
But, barring a cataclysmic religious upheaval or similar, such people would remain progressive on gender, sexuality, free speech, and environment issues. The events of last week might constitute not a rebirth of mainstream Australian conservatism, but its suicide note.
My heart almost bled for Julia Banks but then I remembered that she’d voted to have centrelink recipients pee in a jar. Had supported the demonisation of refugees, Muslims, the working poor. Had stood by and clapped on the reduction of weekend penalty rates and was quite happy to see climate change policy disappear.
Dont let the door hit your arse in the way out Julia
Not forgetting the Banks’ boast about being able to live on $40 a day.
She’s smart to depart while spouting it’s on principle rather than giving the electorate a golden opportunity to punish her chosen party.
And then there’s the born again Jules who is now stridently calling out the bully boys …
… hold on, Jules … you didn’t call it out when Turnbull knifed Nelson, or when Abbott knifed Turnbull, or when Abbott presided over and participated in personal attacks on Julia Gillard or boat people …, or when Turnbull knifed Abbott, or at any time in the most recent chaos. In fact you were second in charge for most of that time.
“I have seen and witnessed and experienced some appalling behaviour in Parliament …’, said JB with those stern eyes looking down the barrel, ‘ … the kind of behaviour that 20 years ago, when I was managing partner of a law firm of 200 employees, I would never have accepted.
But, m’lady, your position in the party was every bit as powerful as ‘managing partner’ but you ‘accepted it’ and, arguably, benefited from it. Now you’re calling it out? I call BSBT (BS Big Time).
Hallelujah. Someone finally said it.
For what it’s worth, i think the margin will blow out further before coming back to somewhere between 54-46 and 56-44 at the actual election (and only due to a concerted fearmongering campaign from News Corp which will of course be ignored by Uhlmann and co because it isn’t against Beloved Malcolm).
The margin was already going to blow out due to the capitulation on emissions even before they rolled Turnbull. The closing gap in previous polls was on the back of a 2 month media effort to talk up Labor leadership instability and to talk up the prospects of Turnbull settling climate policy- those all evaporated in an instant. The ipsos poll which came out before #libspill was the harbinger.
Turnbull’s residual personal popularity, the enduring belief that Turnbull would do good things as leader even if the rest of the Liberal Party didn’t like it, was shoring up the Coalition vote by a couple of percent at LEAST.
There is absolutely zero Morrison is going to do get any of this vote back unless there is a massive external event like a war or like Bill Shorten being arrested for a serious crime or something (even the latter could be survivable as long as the crime didn’t taint the party and Albo or Plibersek took over) . Morrison is not lifting a finger on emissions, people will be reminded of his conservative social positions, of his opposition to the banking RC. The centrist votes the Coalition needs to woo back, who drifted away from Turnbull after the election as it became clear he wasn’t going to actually do a thing for them and a few of whom started to drift back when they thought maybe he would / maybe Labor would disintegrate again, they are NOT voting for Morrison. What on Earth is he going to offer?
Yes indeed, Arky. I don’t recall Uhlmann crying too loudly when Malcontent was bullying the SA government-with the help of the Murdoch Press. Actually, I recall Uhlmann enthusiastically taking part.
“Turnbull’s residual personal popularity…”
This is what accounted for the LNP victory in the 2016 election. Despite the widespread ‘disappointment’ (inexplicable to those who never expected better) a very small vestige of hope in Turnbull remained in just enough voters to see him over the line. That vestige turned to dust in no time.
Apropos the mention of Malcom, I wonder if he’s is requesting a pro-rata payment for the balance of the two million he paid for the job?
Could be an interesting Senate night, with possible realignment of non-Labor representation. Will normally Liberal voting libertarians in NSW vote for Lleyonholm? Will Bernardi’s Party claim some of the social conservative vote, except in Queensland where KAP and One Nation will fight it out for that part of the electorate.
Interesting to see the polling possibility that the Greens might knock off Zed Zeselya, although I’ll believe that only if it actually happens, as a Liberal Senate loss in the ACT has only got disappointingly close previously.
Bernardi is cactus and his “party” won’t get anything much.
I suspect the Liberal senate vote will be disappointingly more resilient than the Liberal House of Reps votes but we’ll see.
Bernardi sensibly rode into the Senate as No 2 on the Liberal ticket, ensuring a six year term, before jumping ship. After that who knows? By then the Liberals may be two parties, one of them conservative.
Even if that happens, which I doubt, Corey Bernardi will not be a beneficiary. He grossly overestimated how much even the far-right bozos care about him and he’s burned bridges at such a rate that even loonies can smell it and steer clear (besides, if you’re a loony that wants a seat, Pauline Hanson is a better bet to suck up to).
Bernardi deserves oblivion after shafting the Libs with his crafty political ploy. The conservatives seem to be fighting over a diminishing ‘base’ of bible bashers and ratbags. Large clean out next May but hopefully sooner.
The best I think the Coalition can hope for is to limit its losses to only 12 seats. Anything more than that is probably just wishful thinking. That is also why they’re in such a rush to do as much damage to our nation as possible, as they know they will be getting the boot in roughly 6-8 months.
The point about envoys is that they are people that you sent away. Hopefully, they won’t come back.
Also, if they are not plenipotentiary and able to negotiate, they are merely messengers. Messengers can be treated badly.
They should have made Abbott the envoy to Kandahar,Afganistan for Western Civilisation and Christianity. He wouldn’t be able to bullshit his way out of that.