Prime
minister Koizumi’s landslide victory in Japan could be part of a
general pattern of movement back towards incumbents in this month’s
elections. Despite what they’ve been telling the pollsters in the
intervening period, when people finally focus on the election in the
last week or two it looks as if they prefer the devil they know.

Consider Norway (recently voted best country
to live in for the fifth year running), which votes today. A month ago,
the opposition Labour Party was well ahead in the polls and universally
expected to win government in coalition with other left and centre
parties. But in the last week there has been a swing back
to the incumbent centre-right coalition (Christian Democrats,
Conservatives and Liberals), who govern with the tacit support of the
populist Progress Party, and observers say it is now too close to call.

In Germany the left is in office and the right in opposition, but the swing is still towards the incumbents.
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder had been written off a month ago; he still
looks too far behind to win, but he may well be able to deny the
opposition a majority and force them into a grand coalition of both
major parties. The same trend seems to be happening in New Zealand,
where the Labour government started behind but is now level in the polls, and firm favourite (5-2 on) in the betting market.

Being in opposition is a pretty thankless task at the best of times, but this year it seems to be especially difficult.