Well apples and pears, bless ’em all, eyes down for a full house, it’s only the bloody British election, innit?
In three days — the results will start coming through Friday morning Australian time (half-hour earlier in Adelaide, 1973 in Perth) — the Great British Public will know if they are heading for a new period of conflict and instability, or a new period of instability and conflict.
Currently, Boris Johnson and the Conservative and Unionist Party is leading by anything from eight to 12 points, depending on the poll, having come in from a lead as high as 18 points by some polls. Labour is badly lagging on 33%, the Lib-Dems are back down to 13%, the Scottish Nationalist Party is hoping for a clean sweep once again, and the Brexit Party — the new Farage/Revolutionary Communist Party outfit — has collapsed to around 3% as Johnson’s strong pro-leave position drags Leavers back into the Tory fold.
The campaigns have been scrappy, messy and self-discrediting, with Boris and the Tories having the clear advantage of a simple message: get Brexit done. Boris has made himself over into a strong pro-Leaver in the public image, despite having once publicly dithered about it. Labour is led by a left Leaver at the head of a Remain parliamentary party and membership, and a split Leave/Remain voter base.
Boris’ policy is to end, as quickly as possible, a process that has become a national agony, and at no matter the cost. Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s policy is to negotiate a new exit deal they won’t campaign for when they put it to a second referendum everyone is dreading. Sweet policy, dude.
Boris’ policy and leadership team, led by ex-Revolutionary Communist Party member Munira Mirza, has succeeded in switching the party away from “free market” austerity to a nation growth/Promethean pitch, which has somewhat pulled the platform out from under Labour.
That has left the Tories free to focus on Brexit as a means to getting other stuff done, while Labour has to argue both its kludged-up Brexit position, and attack the Tories on the NHS, etc. It’s a tricky thing to do, and Jeremy Corbyn is not the “Absolute Boy” of the 2017 election, when Brexit served to protect him from internal party conflict (on immigration, Corbyn — an internationalist — could simply say that “we will respect the referendum result” and that was enough for Labour’s Anglo-nativist voters).
What he has spent the last two years doing is keeping the party in one piece by pursuing a strategy that appears diffident and indecisive compared to Johnson’s bluster. But Boris had the luxury that the Tory party is substantially in the Leave camp, and could afford to let go/sack 30 or so Remainers in its ranks. Labour is split down the middle.
Corbyn has also been battered by anti-Semitism charges, initially against the party and now against Corbyn himself. Corbyn and the leadership can be faulted for not realising that Labour’s huge new intake had trawled in bog-standard anti-Semites, as part of the general spread of the phenomenon, and he was careless in some instances (such as not taking a careful look at an anti-Semitic protest mural, which he defended from being painted over, thinking it merely anti-globalisation).
But the campaign has gone from hysterical to psychotic to brain melt in recent weeks — fed within Labour by a right faction furious at losing party control, and from without by electoral calculation.
The truth is, as with 2017 and 2015, we don’t know how the election will go. That the Tories are the largest party seems without doubt, but beyond that… well… the UK now has the most variable-ridden electoral system in da house — voluntary voting, multiple major parties, first past the post voting, single-member constituencies, a 2:1 spread on constituency-size variation, and weekday voting.
To this can be added a major issue cutting party lines; grandees on both sides campaigning against their own outfits; well-organised tactical voting; and an edge-of-winter election on the ninth shortest day of the year two weeks before Christmas. Any more for any more?
The chances of a Labour majority are low to none (if that happens, just shoot polling — it’s over). But the Tories are up against everyone. Even the Democratic Unionist Party hates them now.
So if the national overall lead figure is not catching residual party loyalty in Labour seats (making them less flippable than it appears) and underestimating Remain-voter tactical switching and turnout-suppressing factors (the old and the cold, for example), then the Tories could fall short.
Labour actually needs only 250 seats to cobble together a Coalition — say, 50 Scottish National Party seats, 15 to 20 Lib Dems and five to 10 minors — once the Tories have tried and failed to form government (if Boris can’t get the DUP back).
But on the other hand Boris might blitz it, and send Labour south towards 200. Even better, the UK count only gets going at about 10pm, and goes all night, so it always goes haywire from exhaustion. Stop off at a supermarket near a backpackers’ and pick up some of their range of sad British comfort foods — pickled sprog, arggghmite, gruffnut crisps — and make a morning of it!
Ere we go, ere we go, ere we go! Eyes down — for an irremediably hung Commons and a new poll in six months. Oi!
Tomorrow, the campaign: lies, pies and the boy on the hospital floor.
Does Labour have any chance at the ballot box, or are we in for more of Boris’ Britain? Send your thoughts to boss@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name for publication.
You’ve got that wrong. The British election results won’t start to come through ‘half-hour earlier in Adelaide, 1973 in Perth.’ We in Perth, particularly if we just read ‘the Worst Australian,’ will get the results sometime in 2020 or 2021.
I get the feeling that there is another campaign running out of plain sight, on social media, whereby “Truth and Alternate Facts and the Truth Free Zone” will all be flourishing in the dank and smelly areas of the web.
There is where we will find, the Russian backed, sophisticated, manipulation of the masses rolling along, doing their damdest to splinter the UK.
Ratty , with all due respect , are you joking or are you serious ?
You are aware there is an enormous maximum pressure campaign from Corporate Interests , US intelligence and its media whores along with the UK’s embedded intelligence throughout its media to destabilise and polarize their respective voting public and blame Russia for it. It’s becoming pretty obvious .
Cambridge Analytica is a very good place to start if you want to learn what’s actually going on.
To think that Russia is playing this incredible game of manipulation and polarisation against the voting public of whichever western nation is having an election is laughable.
Don’t you find it strange that absolutely zero evidence of Russia’s apparent meddling is ever on display. All we hear is accusation after accusation , investigations that eventually come up with nothing .
As soon as Russia and also China began to imaginarily and realistically threaten western corporate interests ie Syria and Ukraine , suddenly we in the west and elsewhere are faced with this endless bullshit about Russia and China being served up to us ..
Maybe you need to spend more time in the dank and smelly areas of the web to realise you’ve been had .
If the UK and its people squander this chance to rid themselves of the Tories , its game over ..
No longer will the protections of the EU keep the US and its corporations from complete and total take over of the UK .. Then would that still be Russia’s fault ? It’s not a conspiracy theory mate it’s happening , why do you think the UK and US media are so vehemently apposed to Corbyn ? Has nothing to do with Russia
Excellent, Jaz.
I’d like to add the much covered up Boris – Russia connection. There were ‘documents’! Documents ‘allegedly’ showing Boris had received oodles from ‘Russian oligarchs’! The gummint refused to release those documents until after the election!
‘Outrage’ galore! ‘Russians are everywhere’! ‘Meddlers’! ‘Even Boris’! ‘Can’t trust ’em, they’re coming for our precious democracy!’
Of course, it’s true, Boris has received oodles from Russian oligarchs.
Russian oligarchs who looted Russia in the ’90’s, in cahoots with (mainly) Yank and Limey ‘financiers and advisors’ (like Bill Browder), and sent the lolly and assets out of Russia, in large part to be stashed in the City of London Corporation, and often travelling via the Netherlands (it’s a tax thang).
As the new Russian Ambassador to the UK said, just a few days ago, when asked about these Russian oligarchs behind Boris, and were Russia ‘up to it’, again’? (to paraphrase);
‘I would just like to point out, apart from having no idea who might be funding the PM’s campaign, that the Russian oligarchs your refer to are HIGHLY LIKELY (he does work for Lavrov!) British citizens, and have been here for a long time – since around the 1990’s, and have not been back to Russia over the period since they arrived in the UK’.
People need to understand Boris is in no way, shape or form ‘choosy’ about the nationality of anyone willing to tip in.
Particularly oligarchs. Boris welcomes all oligarchs.
JAZ, your riposte has that smell of much greater authenticity to it. The Russia, and in our case China, boogeyman is mostly used to hide who is really pulling the strings, corporations, servile media and the US, which is just corporate America.
Look at our last election and the death tax scare campaign on Facebook.
It ain’t the Russians, or the Chinese, my friends.
G’day Dog’s,
Just passing, thought I’d mention the ‘discussion’ had below Keane’s piece, yesdee.
Leaving the apparent animus b/w yourself, and the other chap, and your wondering about whether the ‘other 2 of us’ might be trustworthy, here’s something I’ve been impressing on the cohort for some time, and seems to be gaing general acceptance, as valid;
‘Always assume everything you’re told is a lie, and work backwards from there’.
I label it; ‘The Ultimate Skeptics’ Mantra’.
P.S. Unannounced by the local media, yesdee, the former Deputidee Prime Minister turned up on a foreign noos network, discussing the ill treatment of one J. Assange.
I’d forgotten the same chap had been a ‘dissident’ on the treatment of one D. Hicks.
The show on which he appeared is ‘Going Underground’, and is fronted by an ethnically Iranian chap, who is a Limey citizen, and has a CV in the caper that includes the BBC and the Grauniad, among others. Like many of his ilk, he was cast aside for being ‘insufficiently compliant’, and now his production cohort and he provide most excellent coverage of important events via the cable station that cannot be named, for fear of being labelled a ‘Putin puppet’.
In my own defence, I’m not, but just enjoy hearing from people of the ilk of John Pilger, Nils Melzer, Roger Waters, and the like, on matters of import.
Cos, you know, ya can’t find ’em on any outfits around these parts.
There’s an election on the other side of the world in a group of islands that once ruled an empire, a relatively minor customer of ours that seems determined to become more minor. Here in 1973 that doesn’t look like material for a longish article, however it may look over there in 1788.
“over there in 1788” LOL and touche
But you may be missing the relevant scenario: Boris uses the RN to ship his underclass out here, especially those with pneumonia. Scott Morrison gets re-elected on the slogan “Welcome the boats!” Sworn in by Governor-General Abbott…
Really? One of the 2 core nations of the Atlantic alliance is about to either leave the EU – which is the inner-skin of NATO – or elect a socialist government, and thats not worth an article. That is impressively parochial
Ease up Guy. What is the role of NATO post 1990 or post 2000 if you prefer? Marcron is more right than wrong on this matter. The PRC has awarded the OLNY Friendship Medal to Putin so the die has been cast there. The event occupied the entire front page of the China Daily when it occurred.
Donald has only two friends; Johnson and Morrison. The Atlantic Alliance was declared deceased at the beginning of the year (26 Feb) by Foreign Affairs but that does’t mean that something would be constructed in its place.
Then there is the issue of the future of the EU itself. If the Netherlands decides to quit then it will be over for most purposes. Perhaps there is an article there or with a Trump-Johnson marriage or the future career of NATO!
If everyone hates the Tories, the polls wouldn’t have them winning. For God’s sake, let’s have some truthfulness.
He is referring to the other parties: if the Tories need to scrabble togther a coalition to back them into guvmint, Guy thinks they might be up shit creek sans paddle since it appears the DUP et al have got the ‘ump.
I can’t get over Corbyn cultivating and nurturing that anti-semitism carbuncle of his – refusing to lance it. …. As if doing just that “would turn off his Muslim support”?
Meanwhile, if the ABC is to be believed, the north of England (who can’t remember what England was like pre-EU?) is set to ditch Labour and vote for the government that has ignored, neglected and set them aside on the slag-heap for decades – some people must be happy whinging? “I whine therefore I am.”?
Yesdee, klewso, I went looking for coverage of the leak that came out of Labour’s own ‘anti-Semitism committee’, over the weekend.
In the first 5 pages of search results I found only 2 pieces suggesting caution (on accepting the central thesis – Corbyn’s anti-Semitism ‘problem’, lock, stock and 2 smokers).
Then I got to page 6 of the search returns, and found a complete trashing of what was almost universally endorsed, on the first 5 pages.
It came from Haaretz. You know Haaretz, right?
I recommend seeking it out.