Call me mad if you will, (You’re mad: Ed.) but I have this half-baked theory that, due to some aspect of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, each of us regularly slips into a different alternate universe that is completely identical to the one we left, but for a tiny, almost unnoticeable but very real, difference.
That’s the only explanation I can think of for yesterday morning’s newspapers. I went to bed in a universe in which Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership was damaged, but not terminal, and awoke in one in which he was about to be deposed by “senior Liberals”, “within days”.
In the universe I left, Turnbull had erred badly last week, faced questions about his judgement, and had an uphill task to regain the position he held prior to the affair of the faked email. In this one he was dead meat, as though Kevin Rudd had been made God and was making up whatever reality he liked.
And in the universe I left, Tony Abbott had no credibility. In that universe, Abbott had spent 18 months sooking about not getting a portfolio more suited to his genius than Family, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, and shooting his mouth off about whatever entered his head, earning him a “rentaquote” reputation with his senior colleagues.
But he does a week’s interviews in place of Christopher Pyne and suddenly that’s forgotten?
At least Abbott has plenty of gall, claiming his leader had been subject to a “firestorm of smear” when it was the Coalition that alleged the Prime Minister, Treasurer and upper echelons of the Public Service were corrupt or lying.
But perhaps you can see why I think I’m in a bad episode of Star Trek. Because it suddenly happened again overnight. This morning I had shifted again, this time to a universe where Turnbull was not about to be deposed at all, but was perfectly secure for the time being and considering a reshuffle.
Spooky stuff.
Then again there may be more rational explanations for this than my Heisenberg theory. The Australian, periodically, and via Dennis Shanahan, appears to have it in for Malcolm Turnbull. Last year it was the Peter Costello boomlet. This week it was Turnbull’s imminent demise because of poor polling. Even today, after Turnbull had made a Jeff Goldblum-style recovery in the pages of the national broadsheet, its editorial was slamming him.
Interestingly, it has only come since Shanahan returned to work last week.
It doesn’t entirely make sense, admittedly. Turnbull led the republican cause, and if there is one cause which The Oz embraced more than John Howard’s Government, it was — ironically — the republic. But Turnbull’s moderate views in other areas are the problem, one suspects, and in particular his outlandish belief that human activity is responsible for global warming — a phenomenon that News Ltd newspapers are once again disputing, in the manner of flat earthers who keep pointing to the horizon and noting it is a straight line.
Turnbull is going nowhere, for the simple reason that whoever replaces him will be demonstrably inferior and will be for some time to come. The harsh logic that you can’t get rid of a leader unless you have a better or equal one to put in their stead is not lost on Liberal MPs. If anything, their predicament should accelerate the process of removing the party’s dead wood, freeing up the seats of Mackellar, Berowra, whatever Macarthur becomes, Canning, Fisher, O’Connor and Hughes to bring in a new generation of talent. Dumping Turnbull will only continue this destructive delusion that they have a serious chance of making Rudd a one-term Prime Minister, when they should be planning for the long-term and aiming not to lose seats in 2010, an outcome that will doom them to at least three terms on the Opposition benches.
The only reason Turnbull will stop being leader is if the AFP discovers he had a role in the faked email, and that is out of anyone’s hands except the coppers’.
Without leadership speculation, thus, we’ll have to make do with reshuffle speculation, brought about by the presumably critical loss of Chris Pearce. But quite why Turnbull should reshuffle now is a puzzle. Reshuffles create winners and losers, and the last thing this leader needs right now are more divisions in his ranks. Turnbull could do worse than listen to Christopher Pyne, who fortuitously was away last week, and let things settle for a bit.
Two thoughts come to mind in response:
1. As Justice Kirby once said: ‘Doesn’t the big media run the country?’ You guys in the national media got the polling reaction to the coverage you ran regarding the ALP blowback on the ‘fake’ email. No doubt you are all feeling the shock today of too much power without responsibility?
2. Following on from my first point, how can it be that an allegedly fake ’email’ sent by someone within Treasury, suggsting the PMO is doing electorate related lobbying for a constituent, is not the responsibility of the relevant minister? I can fully accept that even in a Westminister system of Govt a minister can’t be blamed, just like any employer, for fraud or criminality of a staffer gone rogue – at least usually. But what is the Govt and the Treasurer doing about a criminal in their midst? Where is the big media pressure to identify the criminal? Who indeed are the suspects?
No one has been charged, so there is no sub judice issue here. How can it be there is a big media wide conspiracy of silence? If they think it’s Godwin Grech (because I don’t) then have the guts to make the accusation. If they think it’s a Liberal mischief maker – say that. If they think it’s a Lachlan Harris sting on the Opposition then say that. Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein made contact with Deep Throat and all the Canberra Press Gallery can flush out is their happy snaps of the Mid Winter Ball. And they get paid how much?
Terrific stuff Tom, keep up the good work. Buggered if I know what the good work is though.
Speaking of crackpot theories, I’ve got one of my own. Reading Ms Crabb’s Quarterly at the moment, I’m left with the distinct impression that the way Turnbull does business would tend to put a few noses out of whack. He even admits himself that people either love him or hate him. Maybe the haters, realising that a first term Govt almost never gets beaten, have put Turnbull up as a sactificial lamb? I agree, there’s no-one else who could lead the party, particularly since Costello has left, but maybe no one else wants to, and they’re happy to see Turnbull take the flak?
I must say, I’m enjoying it immensely.
Tom, the faked email is currently being investigated by the Federal Police. That is what the Minister and the government did about the fake email. Until they report on the matter then it would be wrong to speculate (have you learned nothing from Turnbull!) about who wrote the offending document. As Ken Henry said – all will be revealed.
Evan, in my world being independent of both major parties is simply reward enough.
Jean, agree the AFP involvement is one thing the govt is doing. But as I say, it’s not subjudice, so what is the executive govt doing besides ‘wait and see’ (remember their scorn at Julie Bishop’s ‘wait and see’ re the stimulus #2?).
It stretches credibility that the Govt is not doing anything additional to the AFP anyway. God help the munchkins in Treasury as we speak.
As for wild theories, having argued an ALP type scenario, a Coalition inspired scenario:
Costello is considering his position. His former loyal servants are angered their leader the ex Treasurer is getting mouldy on the backbench. Now by late April 09 there is a serious chance he won’t even renominate and the ALP overlords will be ensconsed virtually forever. All those halcyon days of GST swathe through the body politik p*ssed up against the wall in stimulus #1 and 2.
Anger turns to frustration and then action – a flying piece of electronic poison is launched into the home computer of a known stickler for protocol, Mr Grech. If anyone is bound to be believed for blowing the whistle it will be him. And besides he’s not so well and will likely need an early retirement. ….??
Bernard Keane: “whoever replaces him will be demonstrably inferior” You are speaking solely on an intellectual level. On a factual level Malcolm Turnbull is badly damaged goods. He has a history, both in business and now politically, of being a very shonky person indeed. If the Libs were to choose someone-if they exist-who is moderately honest he/she would face a relatively canter into contention.
Face it, the conservative parties have not attempted to live in the present. Their leaders are almost indistinguishable from each other. Until such time as they have formulated A PHILOSOPHY, one which they all should believe in and until such time as can present themselves as a modern Party – user friendly, and until such time as they are demonstrably able to make decisions without having accepted the imprimateur of big business before thinking about the potential voter. Finally if they could be a Party free of catholics and all other far right-wing religious nut cases. Then they will become electable.
Even the Americans are waking up to the intense dis-service done by the religious right which has beset the Republican movement. It is well over-due to happen here in Oz. If anyone doubts me I will give you Steve Fielding.
What is the point of the wretched Senator going on an overseas ‘fact-finding mission’ When he takes with him a closed mind. He believes that Global Warming isn’t happening because it isn’t written in the bible.
Tony Abbott and many of his fellow catholics have closed minds and frustrate such things as Stem-cell research. And other the fields of medicine. WTF gives these amateur politicians the right to stall a nation’s progress? Remember the relentless Brian Harradine and the appalling deal he cut with John Howard to vote with Howard. The price? To move Tony Abbott to Health. Where he blocked the drug RU486.
All of the above is intolerable. But until the voters make up their minds the situation is intolerable the so-called independents, and the known examples set by the Liberal and National Parties will continue to dominate the opposition benches. What will they do for the good of their nation? Fu-k all!!!