This is all a bit mad, isn’t it? I’ve spent half an hour trying to work out a snappy intro for this piece, but all it really comes down to is, this is all a bit mad, isn’t it?
The lockdowns are starting up all over the world, Tasmania shutting itself off, France militarised, the US doing it city by city.
The whole sector of the economy that relied on consumer choice is disappearing as the ability to make those choices goes. For a while, there was a brief flurry of, almost, excitement, as people — or one class of people — considered working from home, the couch, Netflix, etc.
Then it was announced one by one that all our favourite shows were going out of production and everyone went, oh. Then everyone went oh, the airlines are going to take a hit. Then they realised, no, the airlines are all going to go broke because no one will be flying. And the hotels. And the restaurants.
Yet even as we start to hear that distancing may have to continue for months and that the virus may be with us for a year, going through several waves, we are still talking stimulus, backstop to an entity — “the economy” — that is dependent on a whole range of activities that no longer exist.
Is this the ultimate victory of the ideology of capitalism; that its abstract relations can be held to still exist even where there is no one to do the relating?
The coronavirus would appear to be god’s way of teaching liberals how the world really works. “The economy” is not an imaginary element; it’s real. But it’s an abstract real, something dependent on multiple processes of less abstract activity.
“The economy” only exists as a separate thing under capitalism, when the majority of production is for sale, of work for wage labour. We talk of medieval and pre-modern economies, but that’s for ease-of-use. In any society other than capitalism production is entangled with other social practices.
Only in our era do we gaze up at something called “the economy”, hovering perpetually above us, showering us with gifts or fire.
Should this virus period be brief the usual processes of monopoly capitalism — billions in “loans” to businesses that have stripped themselves of capital to return money to shareholders — will probably patch things together. But any more sustained process will simply undermine the abstract level on which a conception of “the economy” depends.
In this new crisis, everyone has become not merely a Keynesian, but a magical money theorist. With a sustained fall in demand over time, pumping in money to large corporations will be not only useless, but inflationary.
The last decade of quantitative easing has been inflationary (though it has been hidden in housing bubbles, etc), but it was controlled by the debt-fuelled expansion of the consumer economy. You know, stuff like, er, going out and travel.
With that in suspension, the last illusion of the contemporary economy has gone. Possibly with it will die the notion that the best way to organise a global economy is around the supremacy of the profit motive, with the occasional restraint put on it when it gets way out of control.
The powers-that-be are now scrambling to put as much money into corporations as possible — to service their debt, but stopping short of keeping their staff on pay. This, aside from being pure bastardry, will only make things worse.
Finance capital with nowhere to invest — not that it does much investing anyway — will draw up more and more of the rescue cash. The ground-level economy will shrivel further.
I can’t see how this can do anything other than promote capital inflation — of land, property, finance and corporate services, etc — but which will look like value-maintenance. The inevitable tilt is to monopoly corporations, renters, finance capital. The plan seems to be to deny the grassroots economy the money it needs to survive independently, while maintaining corporations in their shambling zombie state.
This process will impoverish us all, not stave off economic disaster, and destroy much of what we value in neighbourhoods and locales: bars and restaurants, speciality shops, local festivals and events.
What we need (and fast) is a pause and amnesty on every payment that goes upwards towards finance. That means an immediate pause on evictions and foreclosures of both individuals and small-medium businesses, and a phased-in mortgage payments holiday for a three month period, accompanied by a suspension of rent — both residential and small business.
That’s where the money should be pumped into. Companies like Qantas, after initial bridging finance, and on condition of paying their goddamn workers, should be semi- or wholly-renationalised as we start to work out the way to run a contemporary economy for use and rational purpose, rather than trying to put patches on patches of this debt-fuelled consumer/spectacle economy, which was never sustainable in any case.
A corporation is an abstract real, just as “the economy” is. Qantas is a bunch of planes, data, software, buildings and uniforms — and debt. Any longer than three months out of the air, just cancel the debt, take over the airline.
Repeat and repeat.
Anything less, anything else — well, barring a miracle, we’ll need to substantially reorganise — well it’s just mad, isn’t it? It would just be mad.
The Black Death changed European society because the death rate meant that the surviving serfs suddenly had economic power. The question then arises, who will be those that emerge from this global disaster with increased economic and political clout?
For the moment obviously China and Asia more generally, China has had a highly visible two months of scrutiny, that scrutiny is now transferring to Europe and very soon to the US. Europe has been knocked into a cocked hat so far that will likely bring a new distribution of power within Europe, the EU in particular. The US has got off to a very bad start but it remains to be seen how they transition and what interests come to dominate in Washington DC. Guy is on the money in that the outcomes will totally depend on how your Nation State is organised socially and economically, this will expose those who went swimming without their bathers on to misquote Buffet. Can we hope that the neo-liberalism that has had the run globally these past thirty odd years has finally met its comeuppance.
The usual suspects I imagine!
The usual suspects I imagine!
Guy, at national and state levels the strategic problems of pandemic health management look to me much like those of dealing with a civil war.
The ‘economy’ becomes the ability to generate and deploy resources needed to put down local biological insurgencies, and so you have to protect key productivity (e.g. health workers and equipment) while keeping your population fed, housed, heated, watered and as orderly and productive as possible in what in an Australian context is already emerging to become selective regional isolation.
In that context, if and as conditions get tougher, critical ‘too big to fail’ private institutions should become increasingly nationalised (because past a certain point, that’s what ‘too big to fail’ also means ‘too important to function the wrong way’.)
For me, the issue isn’t which doctrinaire rabble is proven right but what constructive lessons we can learn from doing things that last year, we thought we couldn’t afford politically or economically to do.
For instance, this week I joked with my accountant that in the worst case, wiping out a chunk of our boomers and Gen Xers may develop something of a silver lining:
* private health insurance may become more affordable;
* home ownership may be feasible for thirtysomethings;
* wages may begin to rise again as they did after the Black Death;
* Grey Nomad conveyances like 4WDs and caravans will rust in driveways;
* Airlines may take years to become as omnipresent as they were; and meanwhile
* We may have the next five or so years hitting our Paris targets without the need for any conscious environmental or economic policy.
(Too soon?)
Do you really think the oldies are major buyers of 4WDs?
And would more affordable PHI be a good thing? How about a universal health insurance, funded through taxes, like, like….
Woop^2 asked: Do you really think the oldies are major buyers of 4WDs?
Because of the prices, I think people with spare money (including boomers with super payouts) are. Also, a 4WD is a preferred vehicle for caravan and camper trailer towing, especially on a Big Lap around Australia.
It might have changed in 15 years, but a 2005 Webpaper from the Australia Institute claimed:
the ‘typical’ city driver of a large 4WD is a male in his forties or fifties in fulltime
work with a higher than average income, but not in the upper reaches of the
income scale. These drivers also tend to be more obese. Two thirds (66 per cent) are
overweight or obese compared with 57 per cent of the population and 62 per cent of
the total male population. Overweight and obesity peaks among men in the 50 to 64
year age group (73 per cent). […]
Two-thirds of city drivers of large 4WDs agree they like to go away at the weekend
compared with 50 per cent of the population overall. While it is not clear how often
they do get out of town, they also express a strong preference for a holiday where they
can see nature or be in a natural setting (84 per cent compared with 71 per cent of the
population). They also like to be away from crowds.
(Disclosure: whatever the Australia Institute might have alleged is statistically likely about me, I also own a large 4WD and like camping holidays. 😀 )
Yeah, like the voting base of the libs and nats. Surely the younger members of the labor party have thought about that too
And disproportionately heavy users of the public health system
Who would’ve thought such an event would be the catalyst for changing our economic paradigm?
I know that if I had’ve stopped paying rent last month I would’ve been turfed out quick smart.
Now with the inevitable mudslide of rent-defaulters – particularly in overpriced major Aussie cities – it seems those who owe the most are most at risk.
Three strikes?
1) GFC.
2) Corvus19.
3) ….?
First and fore-most this whole corona virus thing has been driven by the MSM. It’s one thing to alert the public of the obvious dangers but it’s completely irresponsible to drive the public to the point of hysteria.
Is it that difficult to arrange a group of crisis actors to pose for the cameras in front of a major shopping centre stuffing toilet roles in their shopping trolleys?…job done.
3) Climate change. It hasn’t yet got anywhere near to what it is going to be.
Here’s a mad thought: let’s save the real things like, er, the people——-Kind a assumes some sort of civilization survives that can provide the minimum lifestyle sufficient to making life desirable. A world divided into the powerful (rich), the useful and the rest who may well get the short end of the stick – the other factions would probably regard them as expendable anyway.
Australian voters are like lemmings but instead of jumping off the cliff the dumb bastards vote themselves off the political cliff, only an idiot would elect a Christian conservative lying hypocrite like scummo, or a moron like Hanson for that matter, we can excuse the Queenslanders , 20 years of Jo and Flo killed their commonsense cells and the northern heat hasn`t helped them either, but no excuse for the southerners, they knew from experience what Howard was like then experienced what Abbott was like and knew what a weak Bastard Turnbull was and still voted “for where the bloody hell are you” Scummo, the biggest lying hypocrite elected since federation and that’s saying something