Daniel Andrews called enacting Melbourne’s lockdown the “hardest decision” he’s made as premier. It was the right one. It will save lives, and it will save those of us working on the frontline in hospitals around the city and around the state from the horrific scenes our colleagues overseas were faced with a few short months ago.
But only if we let it. Lockdowns are only as effective as people allow them to be. If we don’t abide by the rules, the rules won’t work.
Each time I see someone ignore the rules, putting their own convenience ahead of our collective safety, I cringe. Each time I hear of someone refusing to stay home, or refusing to wear a mask, I lose a little bit more hope. Because like everyone I work with, I know what can happen if we let this virus get out of control.
Most people have followed the rules admirably, giving us the best shot at driving cases down. But some haven’t, and I worry that this small minority of people doing the wrong thing could be the difference between success and failure.
I wrote last week that we needed to go harder or go longer than the original six-week stage three lockdown if we were to stand any chance of getting rid of this virus.
Since then, cases have refused to budge from the 400-500 mark, and more of my medical and nursing colleagues have fallen ill and been forced to take time off work — just at the time they’re needed most. Some have been able to quarantine at home. Others — including a young doctor in his 30s from The Northern Hospital — have ended up in the ICU.
Even for those of us lucky enough to still be healthy, the pandemic is beginning to take its toll. It has begun to feel like a marathon — but one you have to run in full PPE, without knowing where the finish line is.
Lockdowns are harsh, and this will be incredibly tough for many. But the alternatives would be even tougher. We could let the virus tear through our community and wreak havoc, or keep more lenient restrictions but be forced to endure them for months and months. Our health system cannot withstand either.
Some will protest that people have been breaking the rules not by choice, but by necessity. This is true in a few cases. Many people have lost their job, or lost hours they can’t afford to lose. Those who don’t have leave entitlements may be tempted to work while sick to make up for some of their lost income.
This is where government intervention, like the federal government’s newly-announced $1500 “disaster payment”, comes in. While below the minimum wage and therefore not entirely removing the incentive to work for people working full-time, it’s certainly better than nothing and will mean that more people will be able to safely self-isolate and keep the virus from spreading.
Andrews’ hope in implementing this stage four lockdown is to drive cases down to a “much, much lower level”. He needs to go further. We need to drive cases down to zero if we want to prevent future increases once we open back up. As has been argued by many, this is the only way we can stop our hospitals from becoming overrun, and the only way we can open back up safely.
But again, this requires us all to pull our weight. The government has done its bit. Now it’s up to us to do ours.
If you feel like visiting a friend or catching up with your mates, think of the doctors and nurses working double shifts to deal with rising patient numbers. If you’re tempted to head out to the shops or wander up the street, think of the hospital cleaners, caterers and orderlies you could be putting at risk. And if you don’t feel like wearing a mask, think of all of us who have to wear them all day every day to keep you safe.
This lockdown will be hard. But if we get it right, our “new normal” could be just a few short weeks away.
Patrick Walker is a doctor working in a metropolitan Melbourne hospital.
Totally disagree. The lockdown is unnecessary and an overreaction. Massively disproportionate response by a culpable government who failed us when the game was there to be won. 10 people in ICU, a survival rate >99% in Australia or >98% in USA. Massive social damage and economic pain will be rent by this foolhardy lockdown, smarter people in other states and other countries without the luxury of only 10 people in ICU have managed this virus admirably. Our state government failed us and nas taken us one hairs breadth to within martial law.
You could only use the word “disproportionate” if you had an idea in mind of the economic damage that would be done in an alternative scenario. Like, for example, removing all restrictions and leaving people and viruses to make their own decisions, for example.
I doubt your comment would be worth much even if it did hazard a guess or two. But it didn’t, so it isn’t
An alternative scenario – 98.73% of people survive Covid in Australia (based upon 13,469 cases and 170 deaths as of 6th Aug) and we continue our fight against it with every tool in the box apart from destroying the financial and social fabric of a city and state. Of course, you also reduce the infection rate by continuing to test, wear masks, hand washing, effective quarantine of those with the virus, vaccine, drugs for treatment, elderly care reform, family protection of older members (I do my parents shopping for example) and further tools as discovery and science improves. I think the use of the word “disproportionate” is reasonable.
None of our comments here are worth much, including yours, just a gab fest of opinion really, relax.
Three’s company!
Again with this 10 ICU units. It was 39 last night, just for Covid-19, plus all the non-Covid needs, and at current rates they will be beyond 100% in a couple of weeks, at which points doctors need to make decisions about who gets one.
Try to keep up Shonk.
Sorry DB I have fallen behind in my counting, its actually 42 as I type. Not sure where you get your numbers for in a couple of weeks it will be beyond 100%.
The state has 695 intensive care beds and the capacity to rapidly expand that number if cases surge, according to state Health Minister Jenny Mikakos.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/what-is-victoria-s-icu-capacity-and-could-we-exceed-it-20200714-p55bv5.html
I thought we were not following an eradication strategy so I still believe that this government buggered the city and state unnecessarily. I know it ain’t pretty to hover around 500 new cases a day, as it would have according to government modelling if we stayed with stage 3, but there are better improvements to stage three that could have been made, including focusing on those people swanning around the community who tested positive to the virus. What they did is fear based government focused on political survival, and not governing to the science, in my opinion.
Exponential growth shrinks. Add in the factor from the last 9 days new cases that haven’t had it long enough to get to intensive care, some fraction of that 4000 + number going to intensive care, reasonably calculated around 10 times the number that actually die, your 695 beds are taken in a week, if there are no new cases.
The surge capacity then taken up within another 7 days if the infection rate doesn’t drop significantly. You’re currently sitting about 3 bad weeks from having the entire ICU beds, ventilators, plus all the surge capacity taken up. But where are you going to find the nurses and doctors, who are already exhausted with up to a quarter or more having to isolate for 2 to 4 weeks if they get it.
Exponential growth, it’s a bugger. Not being glib, but the weak point is the health professionals. They aren’t weak in any sense, but what’s the use of ramping up equipment if you have no more doctors? Their numbers will run out before equipment and hospitals. We can’t rely on the, continuing their super human efforts forever, they are going to get tired, and sick.
Agreed that other measures as well should be used, mask wearing and checking that people who have it are isolating particularly. They’re going for the Hail Mary pass, throwing everything at it.
Sorry DB I have fallen behind in my counting, its actually 42 as I type. Not sure where you get your numbers for in a couple of weeks it will be beyond 100%.
The state has 695 intensive care beds and the capacity to rapidly expand that number if cases surge, according to state Health Minister Jenny Mikakos.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/what-is-victoria-s-icu-capacity-and-could-we-exceed-it-20200714-p55bv5.html
I thought we were not following an eradication strategy so I still believe that this government buggered the city and state unnecessarily. I know it ain’t pretty to hover around 500 new cases a day, as it would have according to government modelling if we stayed with stage 3, but there are better improvements to stage three that could have been made, including focusing on those people swanning around the community who tested positive to the virus. What they did is fear based government focused on political survival, and not governing to the science, in my opinion.
What a load of crap. This Doctor is so correct. If we want to be a society then we need to respond as Dan Andrews has and behave with dignity and integrity and do what will be best for our society for people to survive this pandemic any other response id selfish and so much the behaviour that is so prevalent among certain elements of our society – selfish and self-centred. Time we thought of other people.
The BIG problem: no major celebrity has died from covid-19. Until that happens, nobody outside individual circles of grieving relatives will take it seriously.
I wonder if a payment that’s “better than nothing” is actually worth having, if the aim is to have no-one working when they shouldn’t. Half measures are possibly near-useless in this scenario.
Well , if you aren’t in need of work to put food on the table or pay rent, what else should it be covering? Enough leftover to buy another TV?
Such a strange point to make. We’re in a crisis, perhaps priorities should be keeping people alive, which is both about those with the disease and not spreading it, and for those without to pay their essential bills. NOTHING else matters at this point.
DB…my opinion is we are indeed in a crisis, just not the one you think we are. The crisis is the lock down, the failed businesses, the lost opportunity, the decade to recover, the net negative migration out of Victoria that is coming, the suicides, the massive job losses, the people who will lose their homes, the taxpayer burden, the loss of a once bustling city, the empty streets, the shutdown of art and entertainment, the closing of places where people gather. And more. The crisis is a government that will force its people into curfew, cause young people irrecoverable career and financial damage during the building time of their lives, a government that will try to hold on to power when it is unfit to govern, and the losses from that. In my opinion.
This is the most anti-social statement (not to be mistaken by socialistic) I have read so far.
Are you serious? How about we don’t make people choose between their job and doing the proper, safe thing? Or is this too far out of your ‘priority’ of stopping the virus in its tracks?
Oh who cares a little covid never hurt anyone! Better save muh taxpayers money.
Interesting rewriting of history, it was only about a month ago! All the restrictions in the world won’t stop it if the damn quarantine doesn’t work as it should.
Lockdown will most likely have efficacy now it is in the community at such a scale, but your argument is basically the same as the moralistic finger wagging the right did to BLM. It isn’t just the individual that must make this work, with your head stuck in the plane of ideals and morals you aren’t watching the complete pandemic response.
This is a timely article for me as lately I have musing about the long term effect this pandemic with have on people who are at the front line, especially those in health generally. I get really irritated when I hear about people who just don’t want follow the rules – just because – why should they? I would have much more time for these people if they arranged endless free coffees, did the shopping for free as thanks for the fact that people in the health industry are being continually asked to put the needs of others before themselves. Yes it is their job, but they did not sign up to deal with this situation.