Traffic is a distant memory. The roads are empty. You can’t take an interstate road trip. There are no tourists piloting rental cars along the wrong side of the road. For most of the year of 2020 you haven’t been able to go to the pub let alone drive home drunk.
So you might expect a welcome side-benefit of the COVID-19 crisis would be a big fall in the road toll. Not so.
Australians continue to die on roads. Deaths are down a modest 8.5% on the average of the previous five years, not that much better than the usual annual downtrend of -4.4%.
This data — from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics — shows April is the only month of the year where road deaths hit a record low. Deaths were down about 20% compared with the average of the past five years.
Of course petrol sales fell 43% in April, suggesting the number of kilometres driven was far lower than normal. Sad news for all the families involved. The silver linings in this COVID cloud are faint and hard to find.
If there’s less congestion on the roads, and less petrol being used, then some drivers will be driving faster consistently. And if you have a crash at a higher speed, then your chance of dying is greater, which would explain the flat road traffic deaths.
Yes, that could explain the numbers, in whole or in part. If so it fits perfectly with Gerald Wilde’s theory from 1982 of risk homeostasis – people undertaking an activity have a level of risk they are comfortable with, and if their perception of the risk changes (e.g. drivers feel less risk when made to wear seatbelts) they compensate by other behaviour to bring their perceived risk back to their chosen level (e.g. drive faster) – Janssen, W (1994). “Seat-belt wearing and driving behavior: An instrumented-vehicle study”. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 26 (2): 249–61.
A drop of 43% in petrol sales might explain why the price has not dropped despite the strong A$ & the low price of oil.
One thing that I have noticed in my regular 200km jaunts to & from the central west (NSW) is a major diminution of roadkill.
Prior to C19 a 3 hour drive would see at least 20 roo, a dozen rabbit, several fox and the occasional wombat.
Only the foxes & rabbits still seem to be littering the verges – non adaptive presumably.
When you have good rains you have less roos feeding on the side of the roads.
The well known “panel beaters grass” has sustained many a rural business fixing urbanoids’ cars.
Unfortunately some of these deaths may not be accidents – as people have said the stress and loneliness may have had a terrible affect on some people. Look out for your friends and family, and if you need help please ask for it.