COVID-19 may be mutating too fast for our vaccine rollout to cope. One global survey found two-thirds of epidemiologists believe the first generation of vaccines will be useless within a year as the virus mutates. Australians are not likely to be vaccinated until the end of next year.
Contracts with vaccine manufacturers are for only the initial version of the vaccine — not updated versions to address new common strains. Low vaccination levels may also contribute to the rate of vaccine-resistant mutations and travel bubbles could allow people to catch and spread new strains.
How fast is the virus mutating?
Viruses continuously mutate. The Sars-CoV-2 virus mutates at about half the rate of the influenza virus. Importantly most of these mutations are very slight — if the virus mutates too much it couldn’t bind with spike proteins in human cells — and most mutations don’t affect the virus’ efficacy. Many dominant strains have been replaced and the original Wuhan strain has almost disappeared.
Of the tens of millions of COVID cases around the world, there are three key variants of concern as defined by the World Health Organisation: the UK’s B.1.1.7, South Africa’s B.1.351 — both of which have increased severity and transmissibility than previous strains — and Brazil and Japan’s B.1.1.281. But there are another six variants of interest emerging, the latest detected in the Philippines and Japan in February.
Some COVID treatments including convalescent plasma can drive mutations in a similar way to how antibiotic use can drive the evolution of bacterial superbugs. And immunisation expert Professor Robert Booy thinks easing travel restrictions as countries become vaccinated is a concern.
“The world will start sharing the viral pool,” he said, as people spread the virus on planes.
The trans-Tasman bubble, which opened today, also allows travellers able to bypass Australia’s border restrictions by leapfrogging from New Zealand to abroad (although they are subject to arrival caps when returning to Australia).
There is a silver lining: while many mutations have increased transmissibility, they often have decreased virulence or “decreased nastiness”.
“Looking at the trends over the last few months, the case fatality rate has been coming down internationally,” Booy said. “That may be also a reflection of treatment.”
Is the vaccine effective?
There is limited data about how effective each vaccine is to each dominant strain of the virus.
In February, South Africa paused its rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine over concerns about the level of protection it offered against the B.1.351 strain — although the decision was based on limited data. Preliminary research has shown Novavax is only 50% effective against this strain, while extra doses of Moderna may be needed to have the same effect against it as original strains.
Virologist Professor Gary Grohmann, who has worked closely with the World Health Organisation and as a member of Australia’s Immunisation Coalition, tells Crikey that while the vaccines can be less effective, they always provide some level of protection.
“On that critical endpoint of hospitalisations and deaths, they will definitely have a good effect — it may not be perfect but it will be good,” he said.
“But it won’t have much of an effect on stopping people from getting the infection and spreading it still person to person.”
Grohmann says vaccines plus social distancing and restrictions is key.
Is Australia screwed?
Much like the flu vaccine, Australians are likely to require an annual booster dose. Pfizer has already flagged the need for a third shot within 12 months of getting the first two doses, along with annual boosters.
This will place even more strain on Australia’s rollout. It presents another challenge too: Australia’s vaccine contracts are only for the original version of the vaccine. Separate contracts for booster shots have yet to be arranged.
Do you think Scott Morrison has handled the vaccine rollout well? Write to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication in Crikey’s Your Say section
The deadliest virus facing Australia is the INCOMPITENTUS SCOMUS VIRUS, It`s transmitted by shonky politicians.
This article from Schulz is actually one of the better ones on this sordid vaccine issue. At least she provided a nuance of balance.
“t”…sorry.
International contracts are subject to sovereign intervention. Instead, we need domestic production, with hefty contracts that scale up to supply enough for ourselves and our neighbours.
A couple of days ago, the Bulgarians let it slip Pfizer are demanding a 60% price hike for the next round of supply contracts.
And, just for fun, last week the Indians noted they seem to have a ‘hybrid’ strain beginning to get amongst the population.
Then, a couple of days later, the Brazilians noted they seemed to have a hybrid strain – different to the Indian hybrid, getting about the place.
Yeah, it’s hybrids all round. $$$ ching ching, ching ching. Sometimes I can’t find the words to express this greatest con in history. It’s staggering how the MSM journalists and a couple here at Cky as well just can’t or won’t ( pay check ) face it and deal with it.
Pity we haven’t got a scientific establishment that could have been working on a vaccine for the last 15 months or so. Oh, hang on…….but they haven’t got any money or staff, thanks to the IPA/Liars. Who needs sciency guys?
It obvious that, by the time we receive our vaccines currently on order, they will not be very effective against an already mutating virus.
I fully support the NSW Premier’s call for the release of Astra Zenica shots to anyone who wants them as soon as they are delivered as long as the recipients are fully counselled on any known risks to their age/medical condition group and formally accept the vaccination in light of those known issues at that time and against an unknown future. There remain, in spite of Scotty’s unnerving smirk, no guarantees for anyone, only a range of risks, some known, some small, some large but inevitably, others currently not even guessed at.
There is no point holding on to vaccine stocks when they are at their most effective in dealing with the current strains.
Once again, Morrison is being left behind by a State Premier while concentrating on putting out yet another self-ignited fire in his breeches.
The already vaccinated (through an abundance of caution) Prime Minister is preparing the ground for his next abdication of responsibility by suggesting that he could open up international air travel as long as we, the electorate, accept the responsibility for a quoted, ongoing new infections level 1,000 cases.
The pandemic has already moved into its next phase but Scotty is still fumbling a rear guard action against its predecessor. In his case, the still unknown known.
That is a good question and one that I’m sure Morrison has not asked himself. He deals with problems as they occur. And only if they threaten his job. In that case he deals with the problem the original problem poses for him and his career. The problem itself is of no interest to him. It is all just spin.
And some of our Dear Leaders want a nuclear waste dump built in Australia. I sense a leak.
This has been on the cards for years. The relentless pressure on Australia to become the world’s nuclear dump never really goes away. We must remain vigilant.
Stopped it here in SA, but they will keep trying.
What are we supposed to do with the waste from Lucas Heights??
Well, which is worse for the environment? Annually per capita, a gram of fission products deeply buried, or 10 tons of CO2 dumped permanently into the atmosphere?
If there is to be any scaremongering, it should be about stopping fossil emissions, not obstructing its nuclear replacement.
Indeed Roger! About a bean bag per decade for NSW. or VIC. Unfortunately, the mention of the totems set the place off.
A leak in the little grey cells as the redoubtable Hercule Poirot would say.