Impossible problems tend to inspire outlandish solutions. The Israel-Palestine conflict is a case in point: just consider the Uganda Scheme (the early-1900s proposal to create a Jewish homeland in Africa) or former political adviser Jared Kushner’s more recent but equally absurd attempt to buy off the Palestinians with a little cash.
The Biden administration should keep the history of such gambits — and the fact that all of them failed — in mind this week as pressure mounts to intervene in the fighting.
It’s easy to understand why leaders around the world want the United States to do something: the skirmish between Israel and Hamas has already killed more than 227 Palestinians and 12 Israelis, trashed Gaza’s decrepit infrastructure, sparked the country’s worst intercommunal violence since the 1930s, and torpedoed the formation of a historic Israeli left-right-Arab governing coalition to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the recent election.
Horrible as the situation is, however, getting too involved now would still be a mistake for Washington. While the two sides can be convinced to hit pause, there’s only one way to actually solve their fundamental dispute: a two-state solution. And that’s not on the cards any time soon.
Elephant in the room
The notion that a two-state solution — the creation of an actual, viable country called Palestine alongside a physically secure Israel — is the only way to finally resolve this very long, very bloody conflict may seem obvious. But it bears restating because it’s a truth all key leaders — in Israel, the US, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the broader Arab world — have recently forgotten or simply ignored.
Let’s start with Netanyahu. For years, he has tried to convince Israeli voters only he can protect them — whether from war, terrorism, or the coronavirus — and safe behind their walls, they could disregard the Palestinian question while enjoying their comfortable prosperity.
Once a grudging supporter of the two-state option, more recently Netanyahu has tried to sideline and diminish the salience of the Palestinian question in Israel’s national debate while focusing instead on bolstering his country’s vibrant economy, vaccinating its citizens, and normalising ties with Arab states.
Under former president Donald Trump, the US worked hard to facilitate this agenda. The Abraham Accords, which established formal relations between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates, were premised on the belief these and other Arab countries had come to care more about their own economies and security than they did about solidarity with the Palestinian cause.
And as 2020’s diplomatic breakthroughs showed, Netanyahu and Trump read the region right. After standing by the Palestinians for many years — during which the PA rejected one deal after another — Arab officials in the Gulf and North Africa had decided they were no longer willing to put that issue ahead of their own priorities. At the same time, they’d become increasingly frightened by Iran and recognised the fact that their enemy’s enemy could prove an enormously powerful asset and ally in this regional cold war.
Preserving power
Even Palestinian leaders effectively abandoned independence and the two-state solution. Although Mahmoud Abbas, the PA’s president, still nominally supports it, he’s now sick, 85 years old, and 16 years into a four-year term — and so far more concerned with preserving his own power than he is about making peace.
As for Hamas, it’s never cared about resolving the conflict. What it wants, instead, is to use an eternal armed struggle to justify its oppressive, undemocratic rule and corruption.
As the Biden administration now fields ever-louder calls from Europe, the United Nations, and left-leaning members of the Democratic Party to intervene, its decision-making should incorporate the hard truth that there’s only one way to really resolve the fundamental battle between Israel and Palestine — and none of the key parties are interested in making the sacrifices such a deal would entail.
Meanwhile, Biden should keep two lessons from the 20th century in mind. The first is as countries from Ireland to Israel to India to Indonesia have shown, the desire for national self-determination can’t be ignored or suppressed forever — no matter how much dominant powers may try to do so. The second truth, however, is combatants rarely if ever make peace before they’re ready — no matter how much outsiders push and cajole them.
That doesn’t mean Biden should do nothing. Israel has already accomplished its primary goals: degrading Hamas’s military capacity and reestablishing deterrence by reminding the Palestinians it will respond ferociously to any provocation. More fighting will just cause more carnage and more misery without achieving other strategic objectives. So it’s time for Washington to start pushing for a ceasefire, as Biden did yesterday on a call with Netanyahu.
As it does, however, Washington should be realistic about the limits it’s likely to achieve and should avoid the temptation — so seductive to past US presidents — to get drawn into a larger peace process. While the two sides can be pressured into holstering their guns for now, their underlying conflict will drag on until their fundamental grievances are addressed.
The only plausible way to do that is with a two-state settlement. But neither side has the capacity or is in the mood to strike such a deal right now — no matter how much Washington or other outside powers might wish they would.
Jonathan Tepperman is Foreign Policy’s former editor-in-chief. He tweets at @j_tepperman.
This article is wrong. Biden can do something about the conflict – he can cut or reduce military funding to Israel. Was the author unaware of this?
yep, all the US has to do is stop sending money
Yes you’re spot on – but it won’t happen. Israel is the USA attack dog in the M East.
And impose the sort of draconian sanctions they would impose if it was China, Russia, Iran, North Korea or Cuba doing what Israel is doing.
So just stop backing the constant theft of Palestinian land. Trump’s in laws are colony builders and he perverted foreign policy in their favour. This current outburst began with attempted evictions in East Jerusalem and was spread by Netanyahu to destroy the possible coaltion. He is a criminal, but our mongrel government backs him. Enough of the Israeli version of lebensraum.
Why is Crikey promoting this glib apologism masquerading as analysis? In implying that Biden should stay out of the conflict it neatly ignores the role the US plays in supporting the current war, through USD 3.8 billion a year in military aid and loan guarantees worth around $8 billion. The author pontificates about how neither side is ready or interested in a two state solution while ignoring the fact that Israel, even during the Oslo process, continued to build a network of settlements across Palestinian lands that remain illegal under international law, and has consistently refused to assure Palestinians of contiguous territory and part ownership of Jerusalem – not unreasonable requests for a viable state based on accepted international borders. There’s only one way to actually make Israel come to the table to discuss a two-state solution, and that is to stop funding its aggression and vetoing attempts in international fora to hold it to international laws, both of which America could do immediately if it only possessed the will to do so. Israel can afford to keep fighting for as long as it takes: despite the “both sides” rhetoric, Palestinians are suffering and dying at exponentially higher levels than Israelis. This week’s airstrikes, which have taken out the Ministry for Health, the only COVID testing centre, the Red Crescent offices and the USAID health care clinics show that this “war” is not about Hamas rockets, but about a long-term strategy of causing permanent harm to Palestinian lives. It’s no surprise that an American journal would roll out something sonorous and judicious-sounding, with the aside “horrible as it is” (which, by the way, is fairly cursory acknowledgement of the splintered wreckage and bodies of children) in order to urge America to stand aside and let Netanyahu continue his genocidal actions. It is a surprise that Crikey would reprint it. And given that Mr Tepperman’s Wikipedia page states prominently his religious affiliation, it might have been worth either finding an alternative viewpoint from one of the many Jewish organisations promoting peace, or a Palestinian commentator, to publish at the same time, for the sake of balance.
The US should not get involved??? Hello? The US finances Israel with billions every year. It should call its dog to heel.
Such an ignorant, partisan article ought to have no place in Crikey.
The views shared here conveniently leave out the fact that the Israeli side continue to use provocation for domestic political benefit, knowing that Hamas and local Palestinians are at wits-end and will throw stones back. It is utterly cynical and tacitly supported by UK and US – soothing noises from Biden are merely a sop to the left.