How calming, how reassuring, to think one day we’ll be able to treat coronavirus “like the flu”.
Just a few thousand deaths a year. No worries.
When Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlined a sketchy pathway to a post-lockdown world (a pathway with no signage, by the way, no speed signs, no indication of length, no warnings of sudden turns) he declared that the third phase (or maybe the second — it’s a little irrelevant when the stages have no concrete vaccination numbers attached to them) would “manage COVID-19 consistent with public health management of other infectious diseases”.
“Now, what does that mean?” he said. “It’s likely we may be in that position in phase two, but in phase three that basically means that the hospitalisation and fatality rates that you’d see from COVID-19 would be like the flu or, arguably, better.
“We’re already seeing evidence of that in other jurisdictions that have higher levels of vaccination. So, when it is like the flu, we should treat it like the flu, and that means no lockdowns.”
We absolutely, obviously, need to get to a point where there are no more lockdowns. That beatific vision would be much clearer already if it wasn’t for the botched vaccine rollout.
But to declare that we should treat it “like the flu” is to blithely ignore what the flu is really like, and how COVID-19 is different.
In 2019, pre-pandemic, there were more than 300,000 confirmed influenza cases and 800 deaths. The real death toll is estimated to be in the thousands. Flu rates plummeted last year and again this year, thanks to the lessons we’ve learned from the coronavirus. So far this year there have only been about 400 cases.
Even if we can get vaccination rates high enough that we can end lockdowns without condemning vulnerable people to death or the horrors of long-COVID, we should never become as blasé about it as we were about the flu.
That means people have to remember how to wash their hands (a surprising area of ignorance, as we found out at the start of the pandemic). To cough or sneeze into elbows as opposed to merrily sprinkling potentially deadly particles about the place. To adopt the habit common in Asian countries of wearing a mask if you’re sick, to keep your germs to yourself.
If only the whingeing cretins who moan that masking up impinges on their freedom would instead ponder the possibility that they could pass on the bug that kills a loved one.
And, unlike too many people when they get the flu, Australians have to learn to stay home if they have any lurgy. As epidemiologist Professor Nancy Baxter told The Sydney Morning Herald, “presenteeism” should be wiped out. “We now know that many of us … can work perfectly fine at home. We need to be a lot more open to that,” she said.
No more snotty-nosed people in the workplace, please.
Even if we were willing to just accept another virus cruising through the population “like the flu”, COVID is unlike the flu in a bunch of ways. Sufferers might be contagious for longer. They might be superspreaders. They might be sick for months after infection.
The prime minister is scrabbling around in a political quagmire and it’s no wonder he wants to paint a pretty picture of the pathway that will get us out of lockdowns (and him out of trouble).
The coronavirus is not the same as the flu, and even if it was we shouldn’t accept that the number of deaths is inevitable, which is why this shimmering mirage of Morrison’s won’t get him the clear air he so desperately needs.
We might be able to keep unwell people at home and out of workplaces if casual staff were eligible for sick pay. You can’t work from home if you are a hospitality worker, a cleaner or in retail for example. These people go to work when they are ill because they won’t be paid otherwise. Time to rethink the casualisation of the workforce.
SPECIALLY since that casualisation has actually been a policy decision.
‘“presenteeism” should be wiped out.’ Yeah, sure. Good luck convincing all those hard-nosed bosses who threaten their workers with the sack. And those bosses know that “business-friendly” governments will back them, not the neutered Fair Work Commission. LOL.
Scotty’s 4 phase pathway out of Covid, to Scotty’s Oz – just follow the Yellow Pryck Road.
Too many people call a heavy cold The Flu and there lies part of the problem. If they’d had the real flu they would know the difference. The one year I missed my flu shot I found out what The Flu (Influenza) was really like and was out of it for days going between burning up and shivering so hard my whole body shook. Covid-19 is apparently worse. It’s also worse that pneumonia, I’ve also had that so there’s no way I want to get it again, or anything like it.
Yes! Someone who says ‘I had the flu on the weekend’ should be treated with contempt. Flu is, actually, a nasty bugger of a virus and not something one has ‘a bit of’.
100% with you. Had the flu once & pneumonia twice. Not nice at all.
Covid – works completely differently than the flu – completely different effect on the tissues – anyone that even thinks ‘it’s just a bad flu’ – is pushing some economic barrow to fluff over the health problem.
That is the root of NSW stuffing the rest of the country for the second time – NSW was ‘looking after the economy’ not the health of its people – now the ‘economy’ doesn’t know what to do. The good Dr.Chant pales in comparison to the decisive health officers in other jurisdictions- probably told by Gladys to shut up and the government will tell you what the policy is so toe the line.
Yes. Worried Marshall is going down the same path as Gladys. Morrison says jump, Marshall jumped. I am not happy being involved in any Morrison experiment.
The entire conversation will change when COVID vaccine tablets hit the market probably next year. Vaxart has both a flu and COVID tablets currently undergoing trials. Pfizer has a COVID tablet undergoing trials. Much cheaper to mass produce, far longer shelf life and much easier to administer. It doesn’t ever make the news, but I think it’s really important that we can look forward to and start planning for a return to normality from next year.
“The entire conversation will change when….)
People stop talking about “return to normality”. The default “normal” has changed, a new “normal” hasn’t yet been established.
And as for the Covid tablet ….next year. Why do conservative people always say/hint we shouldn’t doing anything at this time because xyz is just around the corner? I suspect we will have a really looooong straight until that corner comes up. In the meantime, like the Vaccines and dedicated Quarantine Stations, nothing will be done.
When did I say not to get the jab? I’m getting mine when I can. And I’m totally for Q stations – they should have been built last year! The fact that a tablet is on the horizon is good news though as it makes delivery on grand scale possible. There are currently numerous countries without access to vaccines, hell even we can’t get enough. Tablet based inoculations will change that.