A lot of experts were ferocious in their criticism of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to declare “Freedom Day” in England on July 19.
Take Gabriel Scally, who holds the esteemed position of president of the epidemiology and public health section of the Royal Society of Medicine. He claimed: “There is no possibility that this will be anything other than yet another failure that will cost lives and livelihoods.”
Then there’s the high-profile Neil Ferguson from the Imperial College of London who ominously warned last week that it was “almost inevitable that Monday’s final phase of unlocking would bring on 100,000 daily cases, with about 1,000 hospitalisations … We could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day — but it’s much less certain.”
And a paper published by The Lancet in early July by British and Australian scientists (including Australian researcher and vocal elimination advocate Zoe Hyde) argued that “any strategy that tolerates high levels of infection [is] both unethical and illogical. The UK government must reconsider its current strategy and take urgent steps to protect the public, including children … The government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.”
The same group later alleged that England’s plan was “unscientific and unethical”. Not to be left out, Mike Ryan — the World Health Organization’s health body’s head of emergencies, claimed that a “big bang” of lifting restrictions amounted to “epidemiological stupidity”.
The luxury of being able to snipe from your taxpayer-funded gilded tower is that when your hyperbolic utterances are proven completely wrong there’s always something else to gloomily prophesise about.
Instead of hundreds of thousands of daily infections and waves of hospitalisations and deaths, here’s what happened in the UK this week:
Meanwhile, deaths remain 95% below the January peak:
The UK put its faith in vaccines (especially AstraZeneca) and it has been remarkably successful at minimising the impact of COVID-19. Historically, about 17,000 people die from the flu in the UK annually (or about 50 a day if averaged through the year).
Even with near record levels of infections, Britain’s third wave had resulted in about 60 people dying with COVID each day (the second wave led to more than 1,200 daily fatalities). Barring a vaccine-escaping variant (which thankfully so far hasn’t occurred) or a double peak (which in fairness, happened in early December), the UK has shown the blueprint to living with the virus and defeating Delta.
That is by not only vaccinating more than half the total population but, critically, ensuring almost all the high-risk 70+ age group has been vaccinated.
There is never a perfect time to reopen up a society, especially since Delta has ensured we will never reach “herd immunity”. But as former deputy chief health officer Nick Coatsworth noted, and Johnson showed this week, it’s time to stop praying to the false idol of eradication.
Adam Schwab has been a Crikey contributor since 2005, is the author of Pigs at the Trough: Lessons from Australia’s Decade of Corporate Greed and the founder of Luxury Escapes.
Dear Adam,
An epidemic needs time to build and the fact that it is the younger demographics who have chosen to not wear masks means that as the infection rate rises, two weeks later so do the deaths.The NHS is already at bursting point and the young crash quicker than the old from Covid19, for some reason.
As Boris will need to do a swift U turn, as Mark Rutte did in the Netherlands 3 weeks ago, with an apology it should be kept in mind that doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity.
The sting in the tail of letting the young get infected with Covid19 is that the incidence of Long Covid is 1 in 3.
Just what any economy needs is one third of the workers unable to work.
Totally agree that doing the same thing over and over again, aka lockdowns, is the very definition of insanity.
As I recall, the Einsteinian aphorism was about doing something that didn’t work over and over again and getting the same result. Clearly, in the absence of vaccination, lockdowns do work, and will keep working if required and if enforced quickly and with sufficient severity.
If people being personally restricted, children and older students not going to school, businesses being closed, shops being empty and boarded up main streets, not to mention other as yet, unaccounted consequences is an example of “working” then you’re right.
Are you still alive?
Why not head over to the Southern States where not locking down, over and over again, is maximising the infection rate to test out your advice?
Our nation is not connected to the rest of the world, thats why.
Long may that remain the case, pp Gert Permares.
Incubation period is 14 days.
Let’s revisit the claims of this article in August.
Exactly, the article cherry picks anecdotal commentary that supports the writer’s argument, but like much economic commentary it’s too premature……
Boris himself thinks Adam is wrong.
Guardian:
“Meanwhile, Boris Johnson said case numbers were getting “better” but cautioned they could rise significantly again as the effects begin to be felt of his decision to lift most legal restrictions across England that came into force last Monday.”
Clickbait, don’t feed the troll.
Adam, you used to be a cheerleader for Sweden, until that all went wrong and you became silent about it.
Your track record on this sort of stuff is very poor – you are a businessman, not a virologist or epidemiologist – quit while you’re ahead. We’re already sneering at you.
That’s the trouble when all those tracks lead back to self-interest, ignoring the scenic route.
And the scientific route.
The “open your eyes” route.
I hope to do some travel once the borders are opened – can anyone recommend a good epidemiologist to arrange the bookings ….
No, but there is a pretend one to be avoided… like the Plague.
Quite apart from whether this piece is premature, I think it’s poor form for Crikey to publish a anything from a board member that could be perceived as promoting their personal business interests. Bad call.
…. Mark it “Advertisement”?
“Advertorial”?