Until the Kristina Keneally debacle, Labor preselections had remained mostly out of the spotlight. For an opposition running a cautiously pragmatic, small-target election strategy, this lack of national attention was probably welcome. But with an election due in the next six months, and Labor holding a solid lead in the polls, it’s worth taking a closer look at who the party hopes could wrestle back the seats that win them government.
Queensland
Let’s start with Queensland, which delivered Morrison his “miracle” 2019 election victory, and is still the government’s strongest state. Hoping to avoid a repeat of Labor’s wipeout in the Sunshine State, Albanese has visited Queensland several times this year, and announced several candidates early on in a whirlwind post-budget trip in May.
In Longman, the Coalition’s most marginal seat in the state, Labor has put up Rebecca Fanning, a health policy expert who worked on the Palaszczuk government’s COVID response. Elsewhere there’s a whiff of familiarity around the Queensland preselections: Elida Faith is running against Warren Entsch in Leichhardt again, Ali France gets a second shot at unseating Peter Dutton in Dickson, and coalminer Russell Robertson will have another crack at the central Queensland seat of Capricornia.
New faces include Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett, who will run in Brisbane, and John Ring, a former RAAF serviceman who hopes to regain Herbert, centred around the military-heavy Townsville.
There are also clear signs the party is hoping to avoid the “anti-mining” tag which hurt Labor so badly in the last election. In Dawson, where George Christensen is retiring, local mine worker Shane Hamilton is up. In Petrie, it’s Caltex refinery worker Mick Denton.
New South Wales
Labor’s preselections in NSW haven’t exactly gone smoothly. First there was Keneally parachuting into Fowler from the northern beaches. Then Daniel Repacholi, its candidate for retiring MP Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, had to tell the media he was “not a misogynistic prick”. Repacholi, a former Olympic shooter and coalminer, has faced scrutiny over old social media posts calling India a “shithole”. But Albanese pushed Repacholi’s preselection through without a rank-and-file vote because he is, in Fitzgibbon’s terms, “a normal larrikin Australian” of the sort the party needs in an area which has been ground zero for existential angst about losing its blue-collar base.
Over the weekend, Labor announced Gordon Reid, a Wiradjuri man and emergency doctor, for the bellwether Central Coast seat of Robertson. Candidates for key Sydney marginals like Reid and Banks are yet to be announced.
Victoria
Labor is polling so strongly in Victoria that it could win the election in Melbourne alone if all goes exceedingly well. But the party hasn’t finalised preselection for many key seats. And while it picked four candidates in July, most have little visible online campaign presence.
They include surprise pick Carina Garland, a key union official who will run in the ultra-marginal seat of Chisholm; Bill Brindle having another go at Casey, where speaker Tony Smith is retiring; and Matthew Gregg, a schoolteacher running in Deakin. The most high-profile candidate is Michelle Ananda-Rajah, an infectious diseases doctor well known for her outspoken attacks on the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Western Australia
The immense popularity of Mark McGowan and his iron curtain could spell trouble for the Coalition in WA. Labor has its eyes on a few seats in Perth. In Pearce, local mayor Tracey Roberts will run against permanently embattled backbencher Christian Porter. Historic sexual assault allegations (which Porter denies), a failed lawsuit against the ABC, and a demotion to the backbench all make the seat winnable. Meanwhile energy consultant Zaneta Mascarenhas won preselection in Swan after a classic factional brawl. Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside, is hoping to unseat Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt in Hasluck.
South Australia
With sitting MP Nicolle Flint quitting politics, Labor has a real chance at winning her highly marginal seat of Boothby, which the Coalition has held since the 1940s. South Australian St Vincent de Paul Society CEO Louise Miller-Frost is tipped to run in the seat.
Tasmania
Bass is the Coalition’s most marginal seat in the country. Neighbouring Braddon is its fourth-most. Both could turn red. Ross Hart, who represented Bass for Labor between 2016 and 2019, is running again, while in Braddon, the party has turned to Burnie local councillor Chris Lynch.
I see Albo’s captain’s pick in Hunter is already blowing up in his face. Serves him right for being taken in by Fitzgibbon and the other fossils. There is a lot more happening in the Hunter than coal but don’t tell Albo about it.
So preoccupied with chasing the larrikin tradie bloke vote in Hunter that they have overlooked the modest nurse and health care sheilas vote.
Is it true he only joined the party three weeks ago? A bit of a slap in the face for party stalwarts, if so.
hey, it’s all about marketting, focus groups, media manipulation.
As if local members count a whit!
I remember when I was still an active menber of the Labor party, to be a candidate, one had to have had at least three years of continuous membership.1o be a candidate.Perhaps it would be a good idea to reintroduce that rule.
Might take the loss of the seat to have that rank & file vote. There is a rank-and-file backlash in the area. Considering that all (but 1) branch supported the rank and file & do not agree with the pick.
Said a few weeks ago that Newcastle and surrounds has much more going for it than just coal. Labor needs to pick up on that.
Does anyone here really think that electing a “Labor’ government (at the state or federal level) really makes any material difference? If you do, then you are most likely young and somewhat inexperienced, not to mention just a tad naive.
I spent 16 years of my life in the ALP. I served as my local branch treasurer and on the occasional selection committee. I resigned some 40 years ago when I realized that the party had defected to the same side as the (so-called) ‘Liberal’ (an Orwellian misnomer if ever there was one), side of the political fence under the leadership is the class traitors Hawke and Keating.
Although never myself a member (not being the joinin’ type) I know at least a score of people who were, like you, once True Believers (not PJK’s banal invocation), active party members and fervent campaigners.
The tide began to turn after Peter Baldwin and became a flood in the 80s – yay for the Accord! – so that today, from an extended family born into Labor and a demographic cohort that benefitted from Great Gough’s visions, I know not a single person who does not hold their nose when voting for the least worse as the Evil of Two Lessers.
Some interesting comments there Selkie (as usual).
In my teenage years I used to read The Guardian and then The Tribune. These were the Communist Party of Australia (CPA) newspapers. The CPA held the view that the ALP was there on the political scene merely to provide the illusion of a democracy.
At that time the ALP even had a ‘Socialist Objective’ which I was naive enough to take seriously. After Hawke and Keating took over the party even that fake veneer was discarded. I mean, how could you retain a ‘Socialist Objective’ when you were privatizing every government instrumentality that you could find? The behavior and inclinations of Hawke and Keating almost made the likes of Menzies, Askin, Bolte and Playford look like diehard socialists. (Although there is no doubt in my mind that none of those latter-mentioned characters would have objected to what Hawke and Keating did.
For decades now, I have been voting for ‘disaster’ rather than ‘catastrophe’.
But of course Selkie, the current set-up is exactly what the capitalist class want. The Murdoch Media try to portray the ALP as being a real threat to stability, incompetent economic managers and that the sky will fall in if you elect them. But as you and I both well know, no such thing happens when the ALP are elected to government. It is very much ‘business as usual’. The ALP will not upset Rupert in any serious way and he knows that. But by having the LNP/ALP ‘rivalry’, the capitalist class can claim that we have a real democracy. Which, to a point, is true
I remember Washington’s response to the election of the Whitlam Government in 1972. The Americans withdrew their Ambassador who I think was Walter Rice, a business associate and friend of LBJ (and something of a rather corpulent buffoon), if my memory is correct. He was quickly replace with Marshall Green who was a very serious diplomat. I remember the allegations of American involvement in the ‘coup’ of 1975. Former American Defense industry employee, Christopher Boyce also had things to say about that.
Then there was the far more violent coup that took place in Santiago, Chile, in 1973 (September 11th, actually) in which the democratically elected socialist government of Salvador Allende was overthrown and the brutal military dictatorship run by Augusto Pinochet was established (and greeted by Nixon and Kissinger in Washington).
So, I guess what I am saying Selkie is that yes, we have ‘democracy’ but that for our own good we had better not want too much of it, or things may become very unpleasant indeed. Just keep your mind on Reality Television, sports, Hollywood gossip and fashion trends and everything will be OK.
Too true.
Some pertinent points you raise here Robert.
US coercion in Australian politics was occurring during the term of the Whitlam Labor Government. Successive government of both political persuasions have kowtowed ever since, with the assistance of Murdoch, resulting in the forfeiting of so much of our sovereignty to the US.
“The Falcon and the Snowman” by Robert Lindsey( later made into a film), highlights the above through the spying activities of Christopher Boyce and his accomplice Andrew Daulton Lee.
The big question remains – Is the ALP capable, willing and able to turn the ship around?
I leave you with this assessment today by Bruce Haigh in “Pearls & Irritations”.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-all-american-coercive-diplomacy-bullying-by-any-other-name/
Hear! Hear!
Correct. It’s the same-old tribal ‘career system’, whichever way you look at it. The manner in which we prosecute Westminster Government is fundamentally flawed in its support of the powerful (in our society) at the expense of the disempowered. And it can be subtle. I have no desire to play a part in the continuation of this farce and, as per the last two General Elections, will not be voting. Would that others might stop wringing their hands and do it too!
I take your point about NOT voting but, having spent decades elsewhere, I’ve seen what happens when the disenfranchised, disillusioned & downright disgusted refuse to partake of the farce UK, US and, believe it or not, even Germany (BRD version).
The Right cannot argue a case so they rely on emotion, gut feeling (aka hip pocket nerve) and the sheer petulant, arrogant ignorance of the lumpen who recall, barely these days, when it didn’t matter what the suits did, because hard yakka paid off, officialdom be buggered, and one could still make a quid.
Those days are long gone but are not dead, just waiting for the current shower to collapse in a screaming heap.
I hope.
Just so. In those countries where voting is not mandatory, reducing participation in elections is one of the most effective tools for the privileged few to consolidate their grip.
One clear example of the power of this technique was Thatcher’s poll tax in the UK. A large number of people took themselves off the electoral roll in the hope this would help them dodge the tax. Analysis of voting in each constituency in the following election showed the Tories would have been booted out if those voters had not disenfranchised themselves.
‘NOT voting’ is a central plank of radical right libertarian socio-economic ideology and electoral tactics as promoted by Koch linked think tanks via their Atlas Network e.g. IPA (IEA in UK).
Non compulsory voting gives advantage to ageing conservative or right wing parties attracting more older voters while younger tend not to (was a factor in Brexit with young staying home, and Trump i.e. fewer people staying away vs. voting for Clinton); supported by research everywhere.
This is also directly related to ongoing or current voter suppression strategies in US and UK targeting younger, mobile, ethnically diverse and more educated cohorts e.g. restricting mail votes/early voting, demands for voter ID etc.; reflects the fear of ageing conservatives losing power in the long term hence, need for permanent measures e.g. stacking Supreme Court with young conservatives to keep Evangelicals onside.
Of course the main fulcrum of such strategy and tactics is the Koch linked and corporate supported ‘bill mill’ ALEC American Legislative Exchange Council which also proposes restrictions; for some odd reason a senior influential Australian journalist is listed on their website, ‘architecture’?
Good comment thank you
Cory Bernardi was the Coalition’s member on ALEC of which you are probably aware
Gave you a plus vote there Drew, and it went to -1. Don’t know what happened, I haven’t got Alzheimer’s, yet.
Cameron Stewart; suppose being on the inside and getting a heads or scoop up on US GOP policies to enacted 🙂
https://www.alec.org/person/cameron-stewart/
From an ideological perspective Labor is pretty much liberal, whilst the liberals can be considered conservative to far right wing.
Yes Robert, it will make a material difference. By voting Labor you will chuck out the worst and most blatantly corrupt government in living history. Don’t tell me that’s not a material difference. Hold your nose if you have to, but get out there. These are dangerous times with an idiot psychopath in charge. We can argue the toss about Labor’s lost soul later.
I don’t know where all these sudden minuses are coming from.
Even though I do not entirely agree with DB, Sal, they were not from me. I can understand where DB is coming from.
This is a beautiful post, Dog’s Breakfast! If only I had the courage to write the above words (with your permission, of course) on a placard and get out on the street. Please don’t leave Crikey just yet …
I would love to agree with you, but failing a credible independent in my electorate, I’m going to have to vote Greens. I know my vote will flow on to labor, but at least they’ll know they’re on notice. I’m in a labor seat, but apart from the occasional full page ad in the local paper, you wouldn’t it.
Reading through the various comments below, I note that their are a number of respondents so pissed off with the putrid state of federal politics in this country today, that they have said pox on both parties that they refuse to vote. That is your choice I, too am disappointed with low standard,self-serving dishonesty of the Morrison regime, but it is my duty to myself and my fellow Australians to cast my vote and rid the Parliament of this pestilence.. By abstaining to vote, you are indicating that you are prepared to allow continuation of this egregious Morrrisin regime to govern for another 3yrs! !!! Is that what you really want!!.
I certainly do not want another 3ys of Morrisin driving us even deeper into a banana republic state.
Be careful with what you are saying or planning; for a non or informal vote is an acceptance for this egregious situation to continue for another 3 yrs.
Actually, Old Bush Chalkie, I am very much one of those who are very:
“..… pissed off with the putrid state of federal politics in this country today ..…”
I have been like this for the best part of 4 decades. But only once in that time did I deliberately vote informally (at a state election where I could not stand either Kennett or Kirner). I will be voting at the next federal election (provided that I still have a pulse). Quite possibly with the ALP in the penultimate position and the LNP last on the ballot paper. Don’t think that because people are very disillusioned with both major parties that they do not vote.
Having quickly read your list, one thing that can be said for it is that there are a fair number of non-careerist candidates there ie non ministerial staffers, etc.
Interesting article, ta KN-R