Perth, Australia’s most isolated city, has locked out the rest of the country and the rest of the world for the better part of two years. With the harshest travel restrictions in the country, Western Australia has repeatedly shut its borders, leaving family and friends stranded apart.
As Premier Mark McGowan said when the restrictions were introduced in March 2020: “We will be turning Western Australia into its own island, within an island — our own country.”
As a result, the state has become a strange lab experiment. One of the only places in the world where COVID-19 hasn’t spread like wildfire, the state now faces a dilemma as it pushes back its February 5 reopening date again due to surges in Omicron cases and deaths across the country.
WA is a hermit kingdom, and its hermit status serves the state government and economy well. But take into account the emotional and mental burden on residents and those hoping to visit loved ones, coupled with skill shortages, and it’s not clear how the state will cope once cases rise.
WA can’t stay immune to the virus forever. There’s no date in sight to the border reopening and international students were told on Tuesday they had just 72 hours to enter the country to enrol on campus this semester.
Residents risk whiplash as borders are relaxed, having to stomach for the first time high case numbers and deaths among at-risk populations.
How did this happen?
There are just a handful of countries where few or no COVID cases have been reported. (But some governments, including North Korea and Turkmenistan, aren’t disclosing cases.)
Eight islands, including Nauru, Micronesia, Tuvalu and Niue, have managed to avoid the virus altogether. But these are the exceptions. New Zealand and Hong Kong had staunch zero-COVID policies and both experienced outbreaks. Tonga has remained largely virus-free, recording its first case in October and two more this week as aid workers arrived to help after the volcano eruption.
University of Sydney infectious disease specialist Robert Booy tells Crikey avoiding outbreaks comes down to “a combination of remoteness, lack of visitation, and good quarantine”.
WA is unique in this regard. It’s not an island, yet it has managed to escape largely unscathed by becoming a hermit kingdom. Initial quarantine measures were introduced on March 22, 2020, but strengthened in April. Residents were given 48 hours’ notice to return or couldn’t enter without an exemption.
Despite pressure from the federal government and a High Court challenge launched by mining billionaire Clive Palmer, McGowan remained resolute, only announcing a “controlled” border would be introduced in October for states with fewer than five community COVID cases across a 14-day rolling average.
This didn’t last as clusters emerged around Christmas, and in the face of the Delta variant in mid-2021. Visitor arrivals decreased by 99.2% in November 2021 compared with pre-pandemic levels.
With zero case numbers, residents enjoyed limited social restrictions: no masks, limited gathering rules and a low risk of catching the virus. The state’s overall economy grew — its GDP across 2020 and 2021 rose by 4.3%, second only in the world to China. In December 2021, unemployment figures were at 3.4% compared with 4.2% nationally.
McGowan’s hard borders have repeatedly been supported by WA residents and have served him well politically. In March 2021, he was the most popular leader in Australia with an approval rating of 88%. During that month’s state election, Labor received nearly 60% of the population winning 53 seats to Liberals’ two.
His island-state approach has been so popular, it’s even spurred calls for the state to succeed from the Commonwealth – in October 2020, one in four Western Australians wanted to secede.
Despite the hard border, the virus hasn’t been eradicated. There are concerns COVID cases, which are now seeded in the community, are up to 10 times higher than testing figures reflect. McGowan has admitted the travel rules are “inconsistent” and as WA records over a dozen new daily cases, the government admitted the virus has spread beyond any hope of being eliminated.
As Booy says: “[WA] is going to get an explosion of COVID.”
‘A recipe for real trouble’
Waiting so long for the virus to spread, Booy tells Crikey, is “a recipe for real trouble” for three key reasons.
First, “They have very little experience in managing cases and outbreaks,” he said.
The state announced just this month COVID triage marquees will be set up at major WA hospitals — something other states implemented in 2020. Hospitals are already under strain even with limited cases and facing staff shortages thanks to the border bans.
Second, Booy says, some level of exposure and natural immunity is important. Measles studies show that isolated areas fare worse when suddenly exposed to transmissible diseases; increased exposure to the virus decreases disease severity.
“You never want to catch COVID-19 intentionally, and I would never support drip-feed infection outbreaks,” Booy said. “[But] it’s always a good idea to control infectious diseases.”
Finally, vaccine uptake is not where it should be. In some regions, fewer than half Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders have received two vaccines. The auditor-general slammed the state government for its vaccine rollout, saying not enough has been done to target at-risk communities.
Preparedness for low case numbers and curbing infection spread among at-risk populations was manageable, Booy says. Escaping COVID is not an option.
“Almost every country despite having tremendous infrastructure and public health measures have had a massive onset and surge in Omicron,” he said. “You would have to be the great exception to escape it.”
Where to from here?
The reopening goalposts have changed consistently: WA has not provided modelling on the Omicron variant despite calls from the opposition. It was supposed to open up once 90% vaccination rates were achieved, but McGowan now wants 80 to 90% of residents to have had their booster dose.
The new reopening date is based on two factors: slowing the spread until more residents get their booster dose, and waiting until other states hit peak infections to allow travel.
There are concerns delaying border reopening means protection from the first two doses of the vaccine will be limited. Just over a third of residents over 16 have had their booster.
The Australian Medical Association WA has called for a date for borders to be set, arguing implementing social restrictions is key to flattening the inevitable curve of cases. But with huge demands on the health system, it’s not clear how the state government, residents or the healthcare sector will cope as cases rise.
A very disappointing analysis. Allow me, as an ageing Sandgroper scientist, provide some local insights:
First, WA is not a “Hermit Kingdom” – it is a “Hermit Republic”. We had an election in 2021 and the people spoke.
Secondly, the McGowan Government is putting people first and by doing so, the economy functions well (See more below). He has said repeatedly, that he has observed the Eastern States situation with Omicron, where about 100 people are dying each day – who would not have died on the day without the widespread virus. Pro-rata, that translates into about 10 deaths/day in WA is we “opened up”. Plus, of course, the pro-rata 50 or so more people hospitalised each day.
Although the WA hospitals are pretty full, I know that they are well prepared for an “Eastern States scenario” – if it came to that. It simply means that elective surgery would be deferred.
There is a perception problem here: Journalists ask doctors and health-managers whether “the system would cope”. Sure, they say – bring it on, open up! But health people mainly look at health from a management perspective – yes – we could manage 10 deaths and 50 severe cases a day. But what about the perspective of the citizens of our Glorious Hermit Republic? Simply, they do not want to die or get sick, even if they are reassured that there would be a hospital bed or a funeral parlour at the ready. We love being alive and well here!
And the inconvenience of not travelling. As a moderately affluent and serial traveller, I’m inconvenienced more than many. But most people aren’t affluent travellers, so it doesn’t really affect them.
And the “Economy”. Certainly, some service industries have been affected and we have to accept more home-grown entertainment – but the WA Academy of performing Arts has served us well – a lot of brilliant locals now have gigs!
The “Real engine of the Economy” is actually the resources industry. A billion tonnes of iron ore exported each year – $200 billion worth. Plus $50billion of gas and $20billion of gold, plus others in smaller proportions – not only employing people, but providing royalties to the State and taxes to the Commonwealth and dividends to all Australians with superannuation. McGowan – and most West Australians – know that Covid 19 in the mining camps would be disastrous for all Australians.
Is there an end to this? new “variants” aside, WA is now 97.6% double vaxxed and over 40% boosted, increasing at about 3% day. Having been isolated for 2 years, another month would mean that over 80% of us would be in a situation to weather “opening up” with a minimum of deaths and illness.
We in WA are used to being ignored and taken for granted by the Eastern Staters. The 10% State doesn’t get 10% of the National attention. So be it.
There have been some “hardships” in WA – certainly not “terrible hardships” as Morrison calls it. Most service industries have been compensated and internal tourism is pumping.
I’ve visited about 50 countries in the past few years – including Turkmenistan – I’ve lived most of the past decade in Sydney. Like most Sandgropers, I know that at present, there is no place in the World that I would rather be than here in Perth. And that goes for pretty well everyone I know in WA.
Thank you! I was trying to muster the energy to explain, we’ll done.
“must the energy” – perfect.
Well said.
Some good points there, and I can understand the WA mindset, but my concern is that things won’t be much better in a month, or two, or three… If they wait longer the vulnerable people who have just now been ‘boostered’ will need to be boostered again. Data out of Israel suggests there are diminishing returns on the number of shots, so while the costs of staying closed mount, the benefits of doing so evaporate. This is a point being made now by the AMA.
When you say “Simply, they do not want to die or get sick”, again, this is understandable. But I think the media’s constant ‘death toll’ numbers are doing the people a disservice. The current death rate from Omicron is around 0.1% (could conceivably be quite a bit lower with asymptomatic cases being missed), and let’s remember that unvaxxed people are disproportionately represented, so it’s lower again in the vaxxed population. I feel the language around this doesn’t reflect that reality.
FYI, no offence to WA, but I’m happy in Sydney. I do agree with you and other commenters though that they should drop the ‘hermit kingdom’ stuff.
There is definitely a “least worst” time to “open up” while keeping some controls in place. Its a balancing act and boosters are actually key due to the current 2 doses not providing that much protection against Omicron (well that is what the research says but clearly it does provide some). Covid is currently trickling through WA and also probably at a much higher rate than we know due to low testing rates but the number of people in hospital remains low. Maybe its open up by stealth currently…? Its probably also time to change the quarantining requirements for close contacts and travellers and I am sure the resources sector is currently pushing for that as 14 days quarantining on site in particular is just not sustainable and seems unnecessary if you can show a negative PCR test… Anyway we will go our own way and now Morrison is ON OUR SIDE we can’t go wrong can we? The two faced hypocrite!
Very sensible comments Jedi.
I know why many Sandgropers give the ‘middle finger’ to the Eastern Staters (and I am an Eastern Stater!). For god’s sake, do not allow yourselves to be bullied or intimidated into copying us. You will regret it if you do.
As a regular follower of ABC RN’s Coronacast, my understanding is that two vaccination shots offers very limited protection against Omicron infection and not much more against severity. In contrast, 3 shots improves infection risk a little and severity risk a lot. This is why NSW and Victoria have reduced the gap between 2nd and 3rd doses from 6 to 3 months. If WA uses this extended closure to run a booster campaign, it really could make a difference to the speed of cases growing and the extent of hospital admissions. Let’s hope that’s what they are doing.
Its got me absolutely beat why the media as an entire group (not just News and Nine) are so anti border closures. It clearly works.
WA Labor didn’t win nearly 60% of the vote, that was their primary. The TPP was 69.2 / 30.8.
Ms Schultz writes:
“But take into account the emotional and mental burden on residents and those hoping to visit loved ones, coupled with skill shortages, and it’s not clear how the state will cope once cases rise. ”
What about the emotional burden on those burying loved ones too early, the emotional burden on those in our society particularly vulnerable to COVID, the emotional burden of long COVID? Widespread travel via plane is a very recent thing, as is video conferencing. The health and wellbeing of a population must take precidence over those who want to go on a junket, holiday or business travel.
“…those who want to go on a junket, holiday or business travel.” You are intentionally trivialising it. Widespread plane travel may be relatively recent, but millions of people’s lives and livelihoods depend on it.
Agreed, the importance of airfreight is not understood by many people. Passenger aircraft carry people and freight.
True it is that passenger aircraft carry freight but routine air cargo is the deliberately ignored elephant vector in the international transmission of covid(s).
The aircrew are workaday stiffs, unlike the gilded elite of cabin crew, and are regarded as aerial truckies – cheap(ish), plentiful & disposable.
As anti-hijacking measures at check-in are, now, necessary theatre so the quarantine procedures for air cargo crew escaped the overdue scrutiny their privileged colleagues copped due to Sydney’s Insular Peninsula becoming Plague Central a year ago.
No big deal cost-wise, given that passenger numbers were in the basement so there were few personnel associated with the ‘new, improved’ quarantine regs.
It was all put on the ticket prices anyway.
But goods gotta move, as we are discovering at a more mundane level with the new word from every parrot in the pet shop – supply chains.
If only this country had a national shipping company or ten,surely logical & justifiable given over 34,000kms of coastline and being dependent on imports/export more than any other developed country in the OECD.
@Argentina2021 There are lots of air freighters which don’t carry passengers.
You might know that there have been exemptions made for those whose work relies on travel, Andrew Forrest for one!
Would Mr Schultz care to come and volunteer his time at any aged care facility, they’ll pay him $18.50 per hour, if he is lucky, whilst he watches the old and infirm dying from neglect due to this irresponsible government letting Omicron loose?
No Mr Schultz, I don’t mean the people receiving palliative care. Just the frail and elderly……..
I think Amber is a Woman My Lord!
“Succeed” from the commonwealth, and “succession”? Editor, some standards, please.
Life imitating Art from someone bingeing on a TV soap series?
What chance that many here even understand the point you make?
I wouldn’t blame these young journalists Curmudgeon. If you had been involved in the education system in this country, as I have for the last 40 or more years you would know that standards have declined to a pathetic level over that time. And I am not just talking about English. It has been ‘across the board’. For me, the rot started to set in, in the late 1960s when radical teachers with the zaniest, nuttiest ideas imaginable, started ‘throwing their weight around’.
I’m not sure grammar problems began so recently. I was a sub-editor at several regional daily newspapers from the late 80s and saw plenty of attempts at writing from people who would have been schooled in the 1950s at least. There was not much understanding of grammar there. The best was quite good, but mostly it was inane gibberish sprinkled with unintended hilarity. Younger contributors were not much better, but from my experience there was no golden age of correctly taught grammarians exercising care over the language.
Interesting comment Tim.
I will not argue with you. But I think that I can say with good level of confidence that most people who completed their Matriculation Certificate (Form 6 or Year 12) in Victoria in the 1960s were competent at English (a compulsory subject). I doubt that it would have been much different in other states.
Many of those who gain entry into university these days would not have managed a pass result in a Matriculation Examination (and some would have been struggling to gain a pass in their Leaving Certificate (Form 5 or Year 11). I agree with you that there was no ‘golden age’ but back in those days but if you could not reach a certain standard you were not automatically promoted to the next year level and given the impression that you had ‘passed the year’.
You beat me to it.
Oh here we go again, hermit kingdom, secession (not a new idea- do your research), WA will have to open sometime, not prepared, families torn apart, BLAH BLAH BLAH! Go find another drum to beat ffs!
It does seem to be an obsession.
Three hatchet jobs in a single edition after far too many in the past weeks & months.
Envy?
I don’t see any hatchet job, just an attempt to give some in-depth coverage to WA. It makes a change. Most of the time you’d hardly know the place existed given the dominance of coverage for the eastern states.
The ‘hermit kingdom’ crap is very tiresome, sure enough, just another cliché lazy journos cannot resist and which doesn’t seem to mean anything. This edition of Crikey actually gives a good summary of the history of secession in WA so dilettantebeth fired that gun a bit too soon.
The major point being made in these articles is that the border closures have worked so far but
That’s a legitimate matter for reporting. Why the complaining? Should WA always be ignored?
I feel like its groundhog day with the same article being rewarmed like a leftover chicko roll in the servo bain marie. Tell us something we don’t know! And yeah I saw that other article after I fired off this salvo 🙂 And the link to This is Perth which is tres amuse!
I agree about Hermit Kingdonm. Qld was being called that when we were open to almost everyone. Just not the big media mouths.
@Jimbo from Logan
How is the aged care deaths going in your part of town?
I really wish that the state government had held firm until the effective anti-viral drugs due in March were here.
Then again, the Covid party at Noosa went swimmingly I hear.
I don’t see why recruitment of new health workers would mean that we have to have ‘open’ borders and floods of visitors from infected states.
The reason there is so little news from WA is obvious: journos like to write about bad things, things going wrong, corrupt politicians, scandals, etc. All of which are refreshingly missing here at the moment. The liberal party is also missing. Coincidence?
“The liberal party is also missing. Coincidence?”
Good point. That’s why whenever a Liberal minister goes absent – Colbeck off to the cricket, Morrison in Hawaii and so on – I wonder if, rather than be outraged as usual, we should be quietly relieved. Would it be so terrible if they all disappeared permanently?
The health personnel and families can be quarantined at the state government’s expense.
If the borders do not need to open for anything else, I’d hold onto my hat until we import the anti-viral drugs which work and should be here in March sometime.
Omicron already has a sister BA2, which is taking over from the BA1 variant, more transmissible and more vaccine evasive, so waiting for the next round of vaccines might save a lot of families a lot of grief.
Omicron has just reached India, from whence Delta and Kappa came.
More virus reproduction, the higher the chance of mutations and not are all on the good side.
The rest of Australia has its external borders open.
I work in the health field and it is hard enough to explain to pregnant women that Covid19 has moved our still birth rate from 6 per 1000 births to 60 per 1000 births.
You never know Ep, they might be doing a bit of ground work before submitting a job application for a position with News Corp. The approach taken here would go down very well there.
Agree, a very weak effort.
People can still quarantine, you know.
O.K. we might be able to level some legitimate criticism about the Western Australian Health Care system and it’s readiness to deal with a COVID spike, but I tell you what, I would rather be living in W.A. than in any eastern state and I would rather have Mark McGowan as my state premier than any of these characters over here who have unconditionally surrendered to this virus and have pandered to those “Freedom” nutters who were rampaging on our streets helping to spread the virus. And that includes the so-called “Dictator Dan”.
And yes, I know how journalists love a bit of hyperbole and purple prose to embellish their articles (in fact I am no stranger to using that approach myself) so give up on the comparisons with Kim Jong-un and his North Korean “Hermit Kingdom”. The analogy simply ‘doesn’t wash’. I hope that I have made myself clear!
Yes – most West Australians are very happy to be living more ‘normal lives than anyone else in Aus. But of course any Labor run state is fair game for the Morrison regime.
I realized how vulnerable we were when it became obvious that Boris’ brew purchased by Smirko for the unwashed public at a discount from his friend Boris’ who said something about “Cancelled orders” was not effective for the whole 16 week interval between the second dose and the booster dose.
My darling “do the right thing” man got his Brew whilst I went all vaccine snob for Pfizer. He was without antibodies and ineligible for a booster after they opened the borders. I was fine.
Bugger, he was getting his booster the day after they brought it back to 12 weeks. His freedom day was this Tuesday.
Thanks for nuffink, Smirko and crew. Irresponsible, stupid , lazy ….. free character assessment given here.