A federal election, due on or before May 21, could be called as early as next weekend, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison hoping to start the campaign with a post-budget wind in his sails.
But there’s still a big problem for both parties — several preselections in key seats remain unresolved. Factional infighting has caused the Liberals serious damage in New South Wales, while Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket is still not finalised, after the untimely death of Kimberley Kitching.
This week, both parties took strides toward sorting things out. The Liberals have picked former McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy as their man in John Howard’s old seat of Bennelong (margin 6.9%). Kennedy founded the blue-chip consulting firm’s public sector practice, and boasts of having advised prime ministers, premiers and presidents.
Meanwhile Labor has turned to its own clever white consulting guy with a good CV in Parramatta (margin 3.5%). Former Rudd advisor Andrew Charlton — whose preselection has angered local branch members in the diverse Western Sydney marginal seat — is set to be locked in by the federal executive in coming days.
Still, a last pick isn’t a barrier to winning. In 2019, Fiona Martin was parachuted into the suburban Sydney marginal seat of Reid just over a month out from the polls, and won.
NSW Libs in trouble
Despite their success in Reid last time, the Liberals are losing ground by delaying in key electorates. The state, widely viewed as central to Morrison’s re-election strategy, is the site of a factional feud that leaves behind both internal bitterness, legal bills and vacancies in crucial seats. In Hughes, held by Liberal defector Craig Kelly, a dispute over whether to preselect Alex Dore (another management consultant), who lives on the distant north shore, has led to an impasse. The Liberals still don’t have a candidate for Eden-Monaro, held by Labor on a 0.8% margin.
The government has all but conceded Tony Abbott’s former Liberal stronghold of Warringah to independent Zali Steggall — they’ve reopened preselections a third time because the only nominated candidate, Lincoln Parker, isn’t seen as desirable to the state executive.
Things aren’t much better in Western Sydney, where the government once hoped to peel seats off Labor. Labor’s divisions in Parramatta could give the Liberals an opportunity, except there’s still no candidate locked in. Local businesswoman Maria Kovacic is likely to get the nod. In Greenway, where Labor’s margin is just 2.8%, the Liberals are yet to sort things out, although banker Pradeep Pathi seems to be the only name going around.
After much internecine brawling, the NSW Liberals did resolve to save Trent Zimmerman, Immigration Minister Alex Hawke and Environment Minister Sussan Ley from difficult preselection battles. Kind of. Matt Camenzuli, the hard-right factional heavy behind a lot of the shit-stirring, has launched another legal action, this time to over the federal executive’s temporary intervention to save the sitting MPs, which names Morrison as a defendant.
While attention focuses on lower house candidates, the Liberals haven’t resolved their NSW Senate ticket either. That’s set to change this weekend, with a battle for the third spot on the ticket between two sitting senators, Jim Molan and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, and Liberal Women’s Council head Mary-Lou Jarvis.
Over in Queensland, the LNP still doesn’t have a candidate for Lilley, the most marginal seat in the state (Labor 0.6%) after army veteran Ryan Shaw withdrew, citing mental health reasons.
Labor’s Victoria problem
Labor has a few of its own preselection headaches, centred on arcane factional drama in Victoria that got all the more tense after Kitching’s death.
The late senator faced questions about her future and attempts to unseat her — right now. Jana Stewart, a Muthi Muthi and Wamba Wamba woman, looks to have support from dominant Labor right factions — those associated with the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Alliance (SDA) and the Transport Workers Union. It means Kitching’s former allies aligned with the Health Workers Union are likely to lose out on the key spot.
Meanwhile, Kim Carr, a veteran of the Victorian left, is also likely to lose out, with Linda White of the Australian Services Union set to replace him. Carr’s loss, after nearly 30 years in Parliament, is big. He is a long-term power player, and it points to an erosion of support for the senator among key left subfactions.
There’s still no confirmed replacement for Anthony Byrne in his safe seat of Holt. Names in the mix include SDA’s Cassandra Fernando, emergency doctor Stephen Parnis, and the United Workers’ Union’s Jo Briskey, as factions fight it out.
Simmering in the background is widespread anger over the federal executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch in the aftermath of a branch-stacking scandal. That’s being challenged in the High Court by Earl Setches of the Plumbing Trades Employees Union, with first hearings likely today. If successful, all Victorian Labor preselections could be overturned.
That would dial up the chaos to a level the opposition simply doesn’t need.
I live in Lilley. Ryan Shaw withdrew because he featured in the Friendly Jodie’s video sniffing a white powder.
You mean the Parties haven’t imposed their nominees, as yet – which seems the trend of modern Parties. Both Labor and Liberal
Why criticise the Russian Duma or Chinese National People’s Congress – our representatives seem to be picked on the same basis -party apparatchiks
As Peter Baldwin found when he pointed out that Richo’s thugs were stacking inner Sydney branches.
I don’t know the intricacies of the Labor Party here in NSW but thanks to the good authors and journos at Crikey I know a hell of a lot more about the Victorian ALP and labor movement broadly speaking. I was labouring under the belief that everything Kimberley Kitching did was bad and for no good purpose other than to shore up her right wing power base with no good result intended. But lately articles have lead me to believe otherwise. Guy Rundle claims that KK and her AWU/Shorten faction were in discussions with the Socialist Left Vic Laborites of Kim Carr to form an alliance to promote manufacturing – for cars in the case of Carr, for tanks in the case of KK which makes sense as it is a practical defence strategy and certainly cheaper and quicker than nuclear subs. The real forces they were up against were the National Left and the Victorian “Conroyist” Right which consist of, on one hand, government enablers of large scale corporate rent seekers and, on the other, modern technocrats and drippy, small l liberal economic free marketeers on a dangerous and unknown course.
Fair point – if it were true.
It would be a very popular policy – jobs, security and a future.
I realise that Kim Carr has been a Leviathan of the Victorian Socialist Left for what seems like an eternity but his achievements seem to be as much limited as those dreary right wing unpleasant types that characterised the party for some of the 80s and all the 90s and some of the early 2000s – like Peter Walsh, Peter Cook, Graham (1 billion trees/whatever it takes) Richardson, Brian Howe, Roger Price, Chris Hayes, Kristina (failed Premier) Keneally. I know there are narratives and I can be convinced of them if I think the argument stacks up, that they were instrumental in securing Australian industry during tumultous times but it seems it is always tumultous times in our economy since 1973 and before then was plain sailing. I heard Brian Howe saved the car industry but it seems to be a slow death. It seems to me that what they were all renowned for was trying to get cockies off the land away from their broke farms, filling the cities up with people, anybody welcome, or trying to sue you if you criticised them for their short comings.
Who would put their hand up with these claims to fame as your epitath.
You omitted from that Rogues’ Gallery Jack ‘the Artless Dodger’ Dawkins who, more than even PJK, destroyed the Whitlam legacy of free tertiary education.
Oh Yes. I forgot about that mongrel. The one who stuffed up tertiary education. There are other ways to finance uni studies and he made CAEs and minor universities – both CAEs and these universities were little more than glorified TAFEs – the equivalent of a sandstone university. Joke! And made us all pay for the privilege and cried poor when the academic staff wanted salaries commensurate with their new found and undeserved status. A degree became equal to a diploma when the latter was considered inferior requiring a more practical component for job readiness, not the research based critical analysis of a degree. The start of the corporatisation of a tertiary education. A truly disgusting concept. Market based courses?! Crayons anyone? Pressuring the academic staff to seek external research grants even where they were not necessary. Academics responsible for their own funding. Amazing there weren’t any Bunnings-style barbeques in their quadrangles or forecourts to raise much needed funds. He also enjoyed a life after this as Treasurer for 3 years before pulling the pin in 1993. He and former Ministers Brian Howe, John Button (another flop), Cook would travel the world together and beg people to buy Australian made products even to the extent of dumping them on the world markets. That was one of our success stories of the early 199os – we sold most of our industrial products overseas because no one locally could afford to buy them. Another dud from that era was Ralph Willis, the pedestrian Treasurer and Finance Minister and spokesman. And these clowns are held up as giants of a former era that shaped our economy and society when all they did was give handouts to industry for nothing in return (Kodak anyone?) (car industry another), reduce tax for the better off, give us inferior superannuation when 70% of us had it anyway and it was more than the rubbish 3% of the SCG in July 1992 and gave unscrupulous employers a new low target to aim for in contributing to employee superannuation contributions. They gave us wage freezes, a 10% reduction in real wages from 1983-1991,18% mortgage interest rates, 11.5% unemployment, HECS fees, rampant inflation during the 1980s (probably not their fault so much), sold helicopters with guns attached to the gangster PNG army to conduct operations against the people of Bouganville who wanted independence and compensation for environmental and social damage brought on by Australian mining, increased casualisation of the workforce, wage subsidies to unscrupulous employers, rubbish workplace training.
I could say more about Beasley but the less said about him the better and it is best to say nothing about Senators Bob Collins and Robert Ray. Boy!!
Saying Ryan Shaw withdrew due to mental health reasons rather than pointing out he claimed MH issues after being exposed in a FriendlyJordies video does seem a bit disingenuous.
Can anyone enlighten me why Kim Carr might be losing support of the Leftr Factions though?