From the business breakfasts with their steaming bain-maries to the climate change forums in draughty church halls, something is happening in this country.
It has been happening right from the kick off, under the cover of the underpowered and then farcical campaign proper, with its stumbles turned into gaffes, and the mad prevarications of Morrison — “It’s not about politics”, the interest rates, Jesus — and now it is coming to the fore.
It’s a wave of determination that the election be about something real. It’s about three key issues, and about a new multigroup alliance that’s pushing them. It’s happening everywhere, and it may utterly sweep the Morrison government away, or be the means by which the Coalition somehow clings to power.
The three issues that are driving this groundswell campaign are climate change, integrity and corruption, and inequality as expressed in the cost of living and housing affordability and availability.
These three issues dominate almost exclusively, interlocking and reinforcing each other. Other matters — China, the Pacific, refugees, even the NDIS — barely get a look in. In these forums at least. Which is to say, the forums with a left-right range, not the political spittoon where the crazed right dwell and propagate.
For the first time that I’ve seen, there is really no difference in what is being talked about, the questions coming, the sources of anger and insistence, in the chamber of commerce get-togethers and the touchy-feely blue-skivvie Uniting Church forums.
Any Coalition MP foolish enough to turn up and take a climate-denialist position at these places would get torn to shreds. Ditto with corruption and integrity — Morrison’s absurd arabesques around the refusal to put forward a genuine federal ICAC simply will not fly.
That’s why last week, on Wednesday night, more than 30 Coalition candidates withdrew from candidate forums to be held over the following week, en masse and within a two-hour window (according to a forum organiser, who compared notes with others).
These were forums Coalition candidates had already agreed to attend, and had now pulled out of, citing spurious double bookings. The reason? Not that they were meeting opposition and ridicule on their absurd positions, but that they were getting no support at all. None. They had no party in the room, aside from whatever T-shirted dweebs they could bring along.
Worse, the questions were coming in the form of demands for commitments — to vote up an ICAC, to cross the floor on climate. Finally, large groups of people were linking it all together.
They see the casual political corruption, the pork and waste of this government, as an expression of a mob that has lost the will to govern, or any sense of responsibility that comes with it.
Thus, they see its complementary expression in the net zero farce, in the fires response, in the flood response, and that in turn reflected in the cold indifference to the rising, searing effect of the nation dividing into two on the most basic possibilities of life and opportunity.
It feels like everything is on fire, and the bloke who could try and fix it doesn’t hold a hose. What’s happened?
The simple picture is that the unity of the bourgeois class has collapsed. One section of it — connected to old money, industries and rural communities (or part of them) — is holding firm, while a progressive group, aligned with newer sectors, has decisively broken loose.
They’ve joined with the hardcore section of the knowledge class and the separate organisation of green and teal movements has allowed for a unity of core purpose. Sectors of rural communities who have felt dudded for decades — women, the health-afflicted, etc — have joined them, along with a separate group of “rust” independents with somewhat different social and other policy settings but the same core commitments.
When this is combined with the core Labor vote, this new social recombination — which has only decisively occurred in this campaign, catalysed by Team Morrison’s failure of perception of it — then the numbers we’re starting to see (54, 55, now 56 two-party preferred for Labor) will deliver the majority they seek (which, paradoxically, is not what the “middle” sector want).
But that’s only if there’s no countervailing power. That’s a big if, because one of the features of the new social divide is that it separates not primarily on differing content values — though they’re there — but on the very act of participation itself.
This new super grouping are the ones that speak, have access to the means of speaking, see themselves as engaged. The others? Those not drawn to the crazy Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, United Australia Party, etc fringe (about 10%) feel no one represents them, and has not for decades.
They have withdrawn into silence, as an act not of surrender but of resistance. They resist debate, resist polling, resist talk. But overwhelmingly they will go into the booth and vote for Scott Morrison, who most closely matches their resentment at being subordinated to those who do, and can, participate.
Should that prove to be a silent, emergent counter-power, then they may well be able to fight the progressive supergroup to an ugly draw, and the possibility of a Coalition plurality, giving them first nod at forming government. I hope not.
I hope and believe that what I’m seeing and hearing in the streets and halls of the land is a determination to have the future start right now, and build it. But don’t be surprised if the silent speak on May 21, with the only weapon they feel they have — a refusal of consent to someone else’s vision — and we end up changed in everything but our government.
I always find it fascinating that there are a group of people out there, who will determinedly, consistently and often unknowingly vote against their own best interests. And it’s due to rusted on prejudices against “the left, the unions, the latte set, the elites” whipped up by the failing Murdoch media.
There were 10s of millions of them in the USA that voted for Trump despite him representing the interests that led to their poor socio-economic status.
There you have it! MSM has no values. They move in union and, exercise their ‘will’ right up to when the bell rings. For them democracy merely a cloak discarded or to herald an advantage, not yet declared.
Do you mean unison ?
Good observation Vicki. You basically raise the same issue as to why almost 70 million Americans gave their electoral support to Trump when he consistently under-performs, his key concern is with the wealthy and promotes social division and conflict. Marx may claim that as a group they are suffering from a sense of ‘false consciousness’. . False consciousness, denotes people’s inability to recognize inequality, oppression, and exploitation in a capitalist society because of the prevalence within it of views that naturalize and legitimize the existence of inequality .This group are often under the thrall of the dominant or hegemonic ideology (neo-liberalism) whereby the many are led to believe that the current social order is the best one for all. When in fact it is best for the wealthy elite and those in power and is justified under the twin falsehoods of meritocracy and equal opportunity
.
The above has I believe been coupled with a loss of faith or trust in the current political establishment to improve the lives of the least advantaged. Trump emerged as what you may term the ‘anti-politician’ who would radically improve their lives. Also Trump’s demeaning attitude towards ‘political correctness’ with its anti women’s rights and racist overtones appeals to white males who may feel that their sense of power over certain groups has been restricted by trendy lefties. Think about why Morrison chose Katherine Deves as one of his captain’s picks – is was a dog whistle to those of similar attitudes that deep down he shared their views but dared not state such openly.
Patriotism, nationalism or cultural imperialism now provides them – the disempowered with the excuse that what they do towards previously subjugated groups, in particular African Americans and others of different cultural background may now be viewed in a more positive manner. To be seen these days as racist is a negative so far better to be seen as a patriot with simplistic catchcries as ‘Make America Great Again’. This permits or justifies the continuation of a sense of power via a belief in racial superiority under the more acceptable ‘Make America Great Again’. This sense of power means much to those white persons who feel that they presently lack power and control over their lives.
Morrison operates along the same lines and many of his supporters think and wish to act as do Trump’s misguided followers.+
Labor has been voted in 3 times in the last 50 years. Whitlam abandoned full employment. Hawke and Keating took away the power of workers. Rudd and Gillard made us slave an extra 2 years and bent us over with the “Fair” Work Commission.
That’s a record any political party dedicated to furthering the interests of capital could be proud of.
Agreed – unhappy Morrison supporters can vote Labor with a clear conscience.
Correctamundo. People think Fraser and his lot invented the whole “dole bludger” schtick but it was actually Whitlam’s employment minister who, having removed the mandate for maintaining full employment (and thus creating a scarcity of available labour “units” ready to replace any current employee) decided not to fess up and take responsibility to the new pool of unemployed but rather to blame the people who necessarily missed out for their own situation.
Full employment put upward pressure on wages and was thus inflationary. Can’t have that.
Your attempted smear is self-contradictory.
How does “Whitlam’s employment minister ….removed the mandate for maintaining full employment square with
“Full employment put upward pressure on wages and was thus inflationary.”?
You might be able to argue about one of those positions, but not about both together.
And you’re wrong on the first count, because it was due to global circumstances, not deliberate government policy.
A litany of untrue assertions that pay no attention to the global circumstances at the time.
Assertions made without evidence may be dismissed without evidence.
Yes. They haven’t disappeared, they are still there. Stubborn, refusing to re engage and they honestly think Morrison, who has done nothing for them, is the better of 2 evils.
I hope the coalition will be swept from power but am dubious. Murdoch Media is a powerful influence among the ill-informed and many on-the-street interviews demonstrate the depth of misinformation & ignorance. It is no coincidence that the LNP have ensured the Murdoch Media dominate the message and I do not recall any federal election which Labor have won without Murdoch support. To be honest only the Greens (and perhaps Teals) have climate and tax policies which appeal. And the way our system is rigged, the Greens have no chance, other than the balance of power in the Senate.
On the street interviews (vox pop) are not a good indication one way or the other. The editor of the story will usually throw in opposing opinions simply for “balance” when behind the scenes they could be running at 10 – 1.
Yes – vox pops showing up on PM on the ABC RN for example tend to start with some bloke saying that he thinks Morrison has done a good job, which I doubt anyone who has paid any attention – whatever their political stripe – would actually believe. (Just think of the management of the three crises – fire, flood and covid – the scandals, the broken promises and the international relations fiascos with China, France and even NZ. If Labor had won in 2019 and performed at this level, the leader would be only detectable as a smoking hole in the ground from the attacks by the combined forces of public and privately owned media.
The Greens have no real interest in climate change or the environment. They have become captive of the Indigenous lobby and now are only interested in Aboriginal social justice issues.
Rubbish,The Greens are our best hope having a REAL climate policy
I’m wondering how indicative the views of those attending these public forums are, as compared to the wider voting public.
Published in The Guardian last Friday was a poll conducted by the ANU which found cost of living, fixing aged care, the Australian economy and health care costs were of more concern to respondents than climate change, which came in fourth.
The poll found that the first of these two issues, cost of living and aged care, ‘transcended the political divide with more than 60% nominating them as the top priorities.’
Interesting times.
There was a mood change at the beginning of the French Revolution.
And another one at the end.
From ‘My son, the nut’ by Allan Sherman (?) ……’we’re goin’ to take you and the Queen
up to the guillotine
and shorten you a little bit’
Tune of ‘It’s a long way to St.Louis’.