Far from a great movie, the World War II bomber flick Memphis Belle is near forgotten, but it has a great final scene: the Belle returns from its final mission, barely hanging together as a single entity, shell holes in every surface, metal skin sloughing off, and more or less smashes on to the runway.
It comes to mind when watching this Labor campaign. Looks like it’s going to complete its mission and bring something back home — but what? There’s a strong sense this campaign began by being put together on the fly, piloted itself somehow through the flak, and has improbably survived.
That would appear to have been the plan from the start. The whole “vision thing” that a lot of us Whitlam-tragics/Lenin-tragics urge on the party was explicitly rejected. The community was so fragmented and atomised that any elaborated notion of a collective vision would just sound like you were going to spend their money on someone else.
Instead look as piecemeal as possible and offer concrete, micro-targeted solutions — such as two ear clinics for Tasmania, with which Labor began the entire campaign in Bass. Make remarks about the government deliberately disjointed; look responsive and say “I reckon…”; gradually wear away at a much-disliked government.
That has appeared to work for Labor, if both the polls and a perception of the general mood can be believed, but it comes at a tremendous cost. First, you have to throw everything overboard to keep aloft, and so Labor is potentially going into government with no capacity to raise taxes — even on corporations — without some very shifty manoeuvres, limited capacity for decarbonisation, and no position from which to launch a more joined-up “green new deal” and substantial social-democratic renewal.
That is at the root of the premature disappointment many of us are feeling. Labor will — may — get into power just as a decade of global cheap money is ending, with debt, wage pressure and so on to deal with, and instead of responding to that by unleashing a cooperative state-private productivity and infrastructure revolution, it will retreat into austerity budgeting and “wage discipline” enforcement. It will be doing terrible stuff, breaking its promises, causing a sharp “necessary recession”, and quickly become loathed. The new opposition leader will simply say “You can’t trust Labor with the economy” and sail into power after a single term in opposition.
But it has also been unhelpful in the immediate tactical present, insofar as it has given Labor no base to attack from when attacked. In conventional terms, Anthony Albanese has been a mediocre candidate. The “unemployment”/NDIS memory lapses are real, even if the media focus on them was absurd. His responses to questions are often scrambled and mealy mouthed. He lacked assertiveness in response to Scott Morrison. It felt like too many mediocre centre-left campaigns — half-arsed and unable to bring the fight, accepting of an assigned beta status.
That may still prove to have been a great defect, and a missed opportunity. But for the moment, it has to be said, it doesn’t seem to have made a blind bit of difference. Indeed, people seem to like Albo’s aw-shucks style, while Morrison’s aggressiveness may be starting to irritate people — the forceful man starting to sound like the office arsehole.
Paradoxically, to my taste, Morrison is how I want a centre-left leader to speak and sound: making a simple, joined-up case for a program, with a philosophy behind it, and trying to lay down the law to an opponent.
By that preference, the argument for raising the minimum wage in line with inflation should have been announced earlier, as a policy in itself, and hammered relentlessly, so that the actual comments would have slotted in. The phrase that keeps coming up — “things could be better” — could have served as a master theme, far more prominent than it has been.
But once again, the public doesn’t seem to mind, and prefers the stumbling, mixed messages to matching force with force. Last night’s live debate audience seemed to think so, with a clear victory in Seven’s absurd “pub test” audiences preferring Albanese.
Behind it, however, lies a haunting fear — that having thrown everything out, minimised all sense of purpose, Labor falls short, Morrison returns, and not only have we lost but we have failed to establish an alternative in the public mind. It would thus contribute to the general rightward/atomised drift of the country, the further exclusion of real alternatives.
That would be a loss with no upside — because we will have further disappeared into the world of diminished possibility as far as alternatives go.
That would leave us with nothing to show in political terms. Some possibilities will have disappeared from our world because they were not even presented as part of a losing campaign.
For Labor’s “hardheads” that’s of no concern — the conditions of victory or loss worry them not at all, so long as victory it is. For the rest of us that would be to see victory snatched from the jaws of victory as, wings hanging, patches on patches, the metaphor of politics comes in to land.
Memphis Belle – what a perfect analogy for the ALP this time ‘round. After the hyperbolic responses to your article from yesterday ie ‘most important election in my lifetime’ etc. etc., I fear many voters are in for a world of severe post-election disappointment.
*’two ear clinics for Tasmania’ – be still beating heart…
I don’t know what ALP branches Grundle and you knock about in, but in my little local branch, the Whitlam heart still beats strongly.
I have faith that Albo is the right bloke to heal the deep rifts in our society sufficiently that real progress can be made with community acceptance. The Teal independents and the Greens can help in that vital process, but of course the LNP-IPA-MSM conglomerate will do their utmost to stuff it up.
Yes, there’s a few things that I, and I suspect many other left of centre voters, are looking forward to after the election. Firstly, Morrison being shown the door. And later, his only notable public appearances, being day after day of testimony at the new Federal ICAC.
On the Labor side, Albanese does seem to like building things and probably realises that climate change is a problem that needs acting on. So, I think there will be some sensible, genuine and nation building action on reducing emissions. I also think that he’s a decent human being, who has the respect of his colleagues. So, there should be much more functional management, than Morrison and his daily cavalcade of crap.
Yes, looking forward to all that too. But if it doesnt happen, whats yr takeaway?
Well, I think you’re correct in identifying that it will be a crap time to take over, with the economy unlikely to rapidly improve and with natural disasters likely to keep on coming. I think how Labor reacts to that, probably depends on a few main things. Firstly, are they governing in majority or minority. If they’re in minority, there’s probably less chance of them lapsing into austerity. If not, it depends on how driven Albanese is to leave a legacy and how much power he has within the Labor party.
And though I’m a Greens voter, I’m actually quite impressed with Albanese. He seems a genuinely decent person, with a quiet determination. So, I think he will want to do things like, reforming the power grid, building hydrogen hubs powered by renewables, attempting to fix the problems in health and education, etc. And if the right wing of the party aren’t all that keen on some of those things, then the recent election win, should give Albanese and his supporters, enough credit to push on regardless. And while the LNP and News Corpse, will almost instantaneously be wringing their hands about debt, the debt record of the LNP time in government, should blunt those attacks.
If that doesn’t happen, I’ll still be voting Greens, but I’ll be less inclined to support Labor on public forums.
Guy you and others and to some extent myself might find Labor’s campaign thudding and pedestrian but it does appear to be succeeding. Microtargetting is being exercised by all the major parties hence the ear clinics and for that matter dental care by the Greens. This might be why there is not a grand narrative as there was in the past but what does that really matter if the reality is that incumbents lose elections rather than oppositions win them? Morrison and his govt are well and truly on the nose, particularly with women, and that is why they will lose this election. Meanwhile we are already well familiar with Labor’s and/or the Greens agenda enough to know they will be better for the majority of Australians.
Hate to break it to you, but members’ opinion is always seen by leadership as well to the left of where the party needs to aim…
And there in lies the problem. Labor have to be all things to all people, including the handful of seats populated by right wingers whose natural inclination is the LNP or worse and have believed every lie about Labor being high spending/high taxing since Methuselah was a lad. Labor ( and the Dems in the US) persist in trying to prove them wrong by chasing “balanced” budgets every time they get into government. I don’t know why. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
The only way Labor will shift sufficiently to the left to do what needs to be done is if somebody else has the whip hand – Greens ( for everything ) and Teals ( for climate change action). They won’t do it themselves. They can’t. They have to appeal to whinging right wingers and property developers as much if not more than they do to the likes of us. So they’ll be cautious. Centrist. So afraid of scaring the horses, they’ll achieve too little for way too many and out they’ll go.
The trouble is with us on the left our ideas would never get us into the government benches!
In this day and age a party needs to be somewhere near the centre to even get near the government benches, that is why I think Albanese is a good pick. He is genuine and will get on with the job of leading. I will be very surprised if he stays around for much more than one term but he has some very smart people to take over.
Maybe this could be the beginning of a left leaning government for a very long time but I doubt it as Australian are actually quite right wing!
Why do you have that faith? Could you point us in the direction of policy or pronouncements that have led you to that faith? Because I have to say, from where I’m standing he and the party look pretty mediocre. There was a brief glimpse of something when Albanese said he supported the wage case, but then he failed to follow through aggressively. It’s all looking like pretty pathetic ALP business as usual, and it makes me sick.
Memphis Belle, or Operation Dumbo Drop?
The latter describes the LNP surely?
“ That is at the root of the premature disappointment many of us are feeling. Labor will — may — get into power just as a decade of global cheap money is ending, with debt, wage pressure and so on to deal with, and instead of responding to that by unleashing a cooperative state-private productivity and infrastructure revolution, it will retreat into austerity budgeting and “wage discipline” enforcement. It will be doing terrible stuff, breaking its promises, causing a sharp “necessary recession”, and quickly become loathed. The new opposition leader will simply say “You can’t trust Labor with the economy” and sail into power after a single term in opposition.”
You’re reading my mail, Guy. Or somehow you’ve tapped into my nightmares. I fear a Labor majority for exactly this reason. If I was a praying woman rather than an atheist, I’d be wearing out the carpet trying for a solid Green senate and cross bench to give Labor support to do what needs to be done, while providing cover and plausible deniability at the same time: “ It wasn’t us, business, real estate and fossil fuel lobbies! It was those horrible Greens! They made us do it!”
Yes, yes- the Teals. I know, but I’m not convinced they’re into wealth redistribution. They describe themselves as economically “sensible” and “centrist” – and look where that’s got us. I’ve been hearing from the “good economic managers” most of my adult life and I’m pushing 60. I’m fed up to the back teeth with “sensible” “adult” economic management. Time to kick the blocks over and rebuild her. If we don’t, we’re fukt.
Couldn’t agree more Kathy. The Teals are for sure intelligent and sincere – serious about climate action and serious about weeding out corruption. But I don’t think we’ll hear much from them about tax’s fundamental role as a means of re-distributing the outcomes of fortune.
Australia and Labor have been through this before, along with a malfunctioning conservative government.
Check out the political shenanigans in 1941. The United Australia Party governing with a couple of Independents, with Australia nearly 2 years into WWII which our side wasn’t doing too well and the Japanese Imperial Army heading down through the islands towards New Guinea faster than the AFP find “no case to answer” or “not enough evidence to make a Case” when LNP politicians are referred to it.
In October that year the GG asked the Leader of the Opposition, Labor’s John Curtin, “if he had the Confidence of the House”? We had a change of Goverment without an Election.
And the new PM Curtin had to both direct Australia’s War efforts and simultaneously created a Department of Post War Reconstruction whch was responsible for planning and coordinating Australia’s transition to a peacetime economy after World War II. Which promptly set about developing an inclusive Plan to do so.
Labor has that behind it, along with their handling the GFC. The LNP doesn’t have any background of dealing with adversity and that shows.
Sounds like the old motto, “Don’t bring a vacuous waste of space, time servers & carpetbaggers to a fight for political office“…at least I thin that is how it went.
Scummo won in 2019, unexpectedly even to himself, with no policies, no vision, no aims other than refunding patrons & donors.
How different will Albanese be with no credible vision, no remaining policy after comprehensively abandoning every distinguishing feature, whether on tax reform, climate change, superannuation on PPL, socialimprovement and no aims apart from grovelling to the CFMMEU et al.
harsh…..still 8 days to go!!
Yep. The tyres burst on takeoff. The policy bombs missed the target by miles and didn’t explode, being duds. The navigator fell out through the hole in the fuselage. They appear to be lost over the ocean: but which ocean? The fuel guages all say empty. And the pilot has dropped his ciggy and set fire to his jocks.
Just another routine mission.
That’s the LNP planned Operations and Mission, along with very little in the way of pre-flight inspections, Kit checks or looking at Crew compatibility. Their Situational Awareness is abysmal.
Labor did all the boring Planning, taking into account obstacles, weather and alternates in case of any technical malfunctions. Despite the normal obstructions and dangers en-route their Mission looks like it will hit the target.
Labor learned it’s lesson from 2019 – any program can be derailed, even if only for polling day, by the right set of narrow cast lies.
So there’s no Labor program and we’re left huddled together under a scanty “small target” umbrella hoping Morrison doesn’t pull a winning dead cat out of his arse next week.
Across the west progressives are crying out for the world to be realigned, rebalanced and fixed. But the stupid are falling for populist manipulation and strongmen pushing a “vision”.
We don’t appear to have that situation even with Morrison the nasty failed marketing man. Thankfully daggy dad isn’t a strongman.