Scott Morrison’s miracle election win in 2019 still overshadows this campaign.
For starters, it means nobody is willing to write off the prime minister, even as the poll numbers get worse, the Coalition fails to land a clear blow on Anthony Albanese, and the debate coalesces around issues and talking points favourable to Labor.
But Morrison remains a true believer in his ability to prove the polls wrong… again. The path to victory has become a tightrope, but it’s still there. Liberals believe a chunk of the polled vote is “soft” enough to shift in the final week, and that the undecideds will stay with the devil they know.
Morrison’s strategy for the next week is twofold. Firstly, the campaign will continue to double-down on relentlessly negative messaging, trying to paint Albanese as weak, inconsistent and out of his depth on the economy and national security.
What’s notable is just how much more negative the Liberal messaging has become through the campaign. Morrison’s opening salvo was still peppered with post-COVID optimism about Australia’s strong economic position compared with the rest of the world.
Through late April, Liberal ads on Facebook still spruiked Australia’s economic recovery and our comparatively low unemployment numbers. But historically high inflation figures and an interest rate rise dented the government’s ability to rest on the laurels of economic management, and gave Labor an easy attack in one of the Coalition’s traditionally strong areas.
Since then, the attack ads online have been uniformly negative, as has Morrison’s messaging, as the government tries to scare voters away from Labor, a tactic that runs up against the opposition’s small target stonewall.
The second prong of this strategy is a highly targeted — and slightly hopeful — campaign map. That relies on a fizzing of the teal wave in urban seats (where Morrison is too toxic to travel), with Liberal losses limited to one or two at absolute most.
Next, it’s about limiting some of the projected Labor gains. This week, Morrison’s been on a defensive footing, travelling to Liberal-held Bass, Bennelong, Reid, Robertson and Chisholm. It needs to hold most of those seats. The government is also optimistic about retaining its dominance in Queensland and losing no ground (although that won’t guarantee them victory).
Finally, Morrison needs his “suburban strategy” to make gains in Labor territory. He’s been a regular visitor in Parramatta, which ranks high on the target list, as well as Gilmore on the NSW South Coast and Corangamite in Victoria. Other “under the radar” gains could be Lingiari in the Northern Territory, the Tasmanian seat of Lyons, and possibly McEwen in Melbourne’s outer suburbs.
Amid all that seat flipping, the Coalition could probably cling on to power with just 74 seats. Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie, a former Liberal, has indicated she’d negotiate with the Liberals first in the event of a hung Parliament, while recognising that her electorate of Mayo had never been a Labor seat.
Bob Katter is Bob Katter. But he went with Tony Abbott in 2010, is naturally conservative, and would only require a commitment to build the Mother of All Dams somewhere near Mount Isa to get on board.
The path is narrow and uncertain, but it’s still very much there. But if Morrison remains prime minister after May 21, it would be a miracle to dwarf the miracle of 2019.
That election shattered so many presumptions about how governments win, proving a rookie PM, barely holding together a bitterly divided, policy-lite government, could turn things around on the strength of a campaign.
This time, Morrison is a widely disliked leader too unpopular to campaign in much of the country, running an even more divided, policy-barren government, grappling with big economic shocks and a major national security fail in the middle of the campaign.
Maybe we’d chalk a repeat miracle down to Morrison’s formidable campaign genius, which seems to basically boil down to his ability to nail attack lines on cue and look energetic for the nightly news.
Maybe such a victory would be in spite of Morrison, not because of him — a reflection of a latent conservatism and fear hidden too deep in the electorate for pollsters and strategists to find.
If Morrison does win again, we’ll no doubt be spending another three years trying to work out how.
Oh god please don’t reawaken my darkest fears. What an appalling failure of democracy would be represented by a Morrison win.
A re-election of a nakedly cruel, almost-certainly corrupt government would be a profound indictment of the media in this nation – so many have utterly failed to apply the most basic scrutiny to the effects of LNP priorities (which so consistently support toxic commercial interests and so rarely the national interest). The biggest disappointment of all is at the ABC where Stockholm Syndrome prevails as never before, though with some exceptionally valuable exceptions. The Australia that LNP seek to consolidate, with RW media blanket support, would shame us all, but would devastate so many lives, including First Nations.
Australia is already lurching down the road to fascism plain and simple, where the ‘strong’ get the goodies and the ‘weak’ get bugger-all. This is Schmorrison’s agenda as laid out for him by the IPA and all its free market warriors. If Australia votes for this we’re stuffed.
PS: Well done you for getting the ‘C’ word into your post. Everybody knows what this government is but our ludicrous defamation laws have cowed every form of media into avoiding calling the self-evident shovel a spade.
Another item on Labor’s already crowded agenda….
Failure of democracy? I’m more worried about him getting back in a clearly democratic fashion – it would confirm all my worst fears about Australia as a society.
If Labor can’t win this time against a government this incompetent, cynical, lying, corrupt and apathetic can, what on earth does that say about this country?
“it would confirm all my worst fears about Australia as a society”
Totally agree. I don’t think my intestinal tract would survive another term of the LNP. Sell the house, pack my bags and move to NZ.
Yes, this is the true democratic point to ponder, deeply. (ie As with the US, where Trump as such was/is not the issue…it’s the 75 million voters who backed him…)
Morrison’s approach only works when it is amplified and endorsed by the media who want him back.
Without news Corp and the Murdoch minions support Morrison will fail.
His miracles are only existing in the fog of enthusiastic support by some journalists.
“Firstly, the campaign will continue to double-down on relentlessly negative messaging, trying to paint Albanese as weak, inconsistent and out of his depth on the economy and national security.”
Isn’t the LNP running inconsistent campaigns across the country?
And recent events shown the LNP to be weak on the economy and national security?
“If Morrison does win again, we’ll no doubt be spending another three years trying to work out how.”
Not me, I’ll be spending it it in a drunken stupor.
I’ll be like Forrest Gump at the back of the church singing gospel.
Morrison’s frantic visits to seats he perceives as marginal will backfire, as have all his tactics in this campaign thus far. In 2019 the biggest advantage he had was Bill Shorten, and the second was that he was relatively unknown but appeared personable and competent. These last two perceptions have been comprehensively shown to be illusory during the present term of office, and his more disagreeable temperamental traits now very strongly turn off all who get to see him in the flesh. Expect more flops from this candidate as the final week develops. By contrast Albanese progressively demonstrates authenticity and the ability to manage his agenda effectively – even the chattering press pack travelling with him he has tamed.
I hope so.
Never. Personable?? unknown??Competant?? on water matters??