All of us sometimes fantasise about how we would spend the money if we won the lottery, but we might not realise how much those fantasies reveal. As it turns out, there’s surprising information contained within those daydreams. Pattern-break analysis, a method I explore in my book A Sense of the Enemy, is the study of how dramatic, unexpected events expose underlying drivers.
If you won the $100 million jackpot, would you quit your job immediately, or would you simply carry on as usual but with a few more vacations? It’s our behaviour around these pattern-breaking moments that can expose what truly drives us. If we know how that works, we can learn something about ourselves. And if we apply those tools to strategic opponents, we can learn how they act, too.
In my study of how historical figures tried to understand their enemies, I found that the ones who succeeded most, such as Indian leader Mohandas Gandhi or German Chancellor Gustav Stresemann, had a method. They focused on an enemy’s behaviour around pattern-breaking moments for clues to that enemy’s key drivers. The current Ukraine crisis is such a moment. It offers us an important lesson not in how Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks — but in how the Chinese leadership does.
If Beijing begins to take intensified, dramatic new steps to insulate itself from possible Western sanctions, then it may be a significant clue that it is serious about a possible future annexation of Taiwan. Or it could presage some other aggressive move that would trigger severe Western sanctions. In fact, Beijing is already stepping up its economic inoculation efforts.
Beijing’s economic protective measures span the realms of global currency exchange to international supply chain controls. As Zongyuan Zoe Liu has shown, China has been hardening its shell by ensuring that its primary oil suppliers, such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, accept the Chinese yuan as payment, thereby freeing itself from dollar dependency.
As of 2019, China had stakes in 101 ports worldwide, including 16 in Europe, giving it the potential to disrupt the flow of goods to the United States in the event of a clash. Liu details multiple means that Beijing has been pursuing for years, but she interprets them as largely defensive. US analysts must ask whether those measures are purely defensive — or are they being made in preparation for Beijing’s own aggressive acts?
One way to think about the problem is by asking what other states would do. The world’s other largest economies — Japan, Germany, Britain, France, or Italy — are not hardening themselves in this way, most likely because they have no intention of acting in ways that would trigger massive sanctions against them.
In strategic thinking, pattern-breaking moments are those times when normal routines are upended and standard operating procedures are completely overturned. They can be any dramatic events, from a nuclear disaster to a massacre, a sudden spike in violence, or even a peaceful revolution. Crucially, they are events exogenous to the enemy in question — incidents that the opponent did not create itself. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would therefore not be a pattern-breaking moment for it or Putin — but it certainly was for the rest of the world.
The unprecedented economic sanctions that have accompanied Putin’s war are a particularly strong example of this. A distant war in Europe might not touch Beijing directly, but the financial ripples undeniably have. The scope and scale are unprecedented.
The United States did previously freeze Iran’s foreign exchange reserves, but the seizure of Russian assets has occurred at much greater levels and in capitals across Europe and beyond. More striking still has been the voluntary withdrawal of hundreds of private businesses from Russia. No government agency commanded these corporations to pull out. They chose to exit, losing billions of dollars in the process. More than any other aspect of the sanctions, this element of voluntary sacrifice by corporate entities will have captured Beijing’s attention.
Chinese leaders may have been equally surprised by the unified response of democratic nations. The many divisions among NATO and European Union allies have often made concerted action challenging. But Russia’s invasion proved so unacceptable to Europeans that they have reacted with uncommon singularity of purpose.
Even historically neutral Switzerland has joined the anti-Russia sanctions and declared itself opposed to Putin’s war. And beyond Europe, Singapore, which seldom takes sides, has unequivocally sided with the West, with its foreign minister calling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “a clear and gross violation of the international norms”. Solidarity among most advanced economies against aggression is one more marker of this pattern-breaking moment.
Chinese leaders found that their erection of genocidal labour camps in Xinjiang produced strong sanctions from the United States, and China’s brutal crackdown on protests in Hong Kong also led to a stern Western response. But those reactions were costs that Beijing appeared willing to bear. Until Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing could have convinced itself that an invasion and annexation of Taiwan might be achieved at a high, though acceptable, price. That calculation must now be rethought.
Seeing how vulnerable Moscow has been to both the freezing of its foreign currency reserves in Western central banks and the corporate pullout, Beijing now knows that it, too, could be targeted in similar ways. And while its currency might not be at risk, the fear of global economic isolation might hasten trends that have been long underway.
Meaningful pattern-breaking moments are relatively rare. When they come along, we need to take note. We should remember that the key is not to seek a change in behaviour. Instead, it is to scrutinise the behaviour, whatever it is, around those precious moments. Because even if someone’s behaviour remains the same, that in itself provides important insight into what they might do next.
I am disappointed in Crikey- i expect more. How can you publish an article like this? This is Oz and SMH stuff. Just a few points:
“a possible future annexation of Taiwan.” – It is part of China in the same way that Taiwan claims China is theirs. This is one country as recognised by Australia, the USA and virtually the whole world. So it is not “annexation” but merely coming back into the fold.
“No government agency commanded these corporations to pull out.” – what rubbish, they don’t have to be told. Look what happened in Iran – European companies can trade there at the expense of total ruination.
“Singapore, which seldom takes sides, has unequivocally sided with the West” – not true, they and 3/4 of the world (the non whites – Africa, Asia, South and Central America) – view this as total hypocrisy. Lets we forget all the evil we, the whites, have done – Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Vietnam………need i go on)
“genocidal labour camps in Xinjiang produced strong sanctions from the United States, and China’s brutal crackdown on protests in Hong Kong” – first they are not genocidal, second there are more incarcerated people in the USA than China (USA has 5% of the world’s population with 25% of the incarcerated ones worldwide), and finally Hong Kong is part of China and the two systems one nation was forced upon them by a colonial power (Britain) and Hong Kong people never had a vote under the British anyway
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But let us not get facts in the way
The entire article is a complete Crock.
The “genocidal labour camps” and claims of Genocide have been thoroughly debunked as not meeting any standard of proof. The ETIM are a UN designated Terrorist Group and needed to be brought under control after committing terrorist acts in China.
How can China annexe Taiwan when it already belongs to China?
“China’s brutal crackdown on protests in Hong Kong”. Both my wife and I were actually present and they were Riots, not protests, where innocent people were murdered, assaulted, and city streets and institutions illegally seized by rioters. All China has done is remove the Foreign Interference from HK and restore peace. What was reported in the West was not what actually happened on the ground. I would have loved to see the response had the same occurred in the US or UK.
Being present in HK doesn’t guarantee you know the full picture. Granted there was violence from both sides (in what proportions it is difficult to say, and anyway it’s not relevant to the justice of the cause) but how can you dismiss the fact that many hundreds of thousands marched peacefully in the protests? It’s pretty clear Hong Kongers didn’t want to China’s “peace.”
If you were not there, you cannot possibly know what it was like. Unable to leave and go anywhere at night due to the violence of the Black Clad Cockroaches, the smoke from fires lit by these Roaches as part of illegally seizing streets, the list goes on.
I know what we and family members witnessed personally and personally experienced. I’m not talking about the original misguided protestors, I’m talking about the Black Clad Cockroaches who were funded by Foreign organizations. My wife knows people personally that were paid to riot and cause problems. US$5000 for each Medkit that the “Medics” had? There was too much money behind it for it to have come from locals.
Here’s a few things you don’t know:
The Extradition Bill was put up to placate the G7 FATF and assist in fighting financial crimes. It applied to every country that HK didn’t have an Extradition Treaty with, it was well written by the HK Civil Service and the same Extradition procedures and due process that you would expect from any nation (including Appeals etc) were proposed. It was simply portrayed as “extradition to China without due process” is all. The coverage you saw here was utter BS.
The Police were amazingly tolerant until the Cockroaches appeared and the Roaches went beyond peaceful protest. Nobody was killed by police as opposed to the Roaches. At least 2 innocent people were murdered, 1 set alight because he dared to disagree with the Roaches and dog knows how many were assaulted. The Roaches seized control of the Airport and University and were manufacturing explosives on the Campus. Businesses were torched, MRT Stations also torched and otherwise vandalized by the black clad scum. I have nothing but praise for the HK Police. This was not protest, it was terrorism. Plain and simple terrorism.
When you are given a lawful order by Police to disperse you either follow that order and pack your bongos, stop whinging and go home or you bear the consequences.
Sorry but the National Security Law was necessary to remove the Foreign organisations funding the Roaches and restore peace.
I consider that the Chinese and HK Governments were remarkably restrained in their response to the acts of terrorism.
Another point that has received no coverage is that Xi recently announced the “one country two systems “ arrangement would be maintained into the future. This was initial goal of the protest movement but it later developed into one of independence.
it seems that there is a global effort to misrepresent the facts.
There is indeed. Interesting article on just that subject on P & I on Saturday by Nury Vittachi in HK.
Excellent Article
Well said.
Doesn’t it occur to you that perhaps the hundreds of thousands of “misguided” HK residents had a more intimate knowledge of the ways of the CCP than you?
I’d suggest the reverse was true 🙂
They were misguided because the Media in HK portrayed the Extradition Bill as “extradition to China without due process” which was utter and complete BS.
I have spent a lot of time in China and don’t fear the Chinese Government at all. As I said, unless you were actually there in 2019 and experienced it yourself, you have no idea of what went on in reality. The Western Media coverage was an outrage and a disgrace to “journalistic standards”.
I have also spent a lot of time in China and have a lot of respect for the culture and people. I would never presume I knew more about what their government was like than they did themselves.
I don’t presume. My immediate family are Chinese citizens.
This article could easily have been curated by the CIA/MI6 operatives. Crikey should do better. We can read this stuff in any Murdoch rag!
Yes, the old line of keep telling them the big enough and it will eventually happen. I keep harping back to Kindergardem Diplomacy. If the group picks of two “deviants” you can bet your life those deviants will become allies.
Crikey – your spell check is useless.
Another article by someone who does not know the history of Taiwan and the recognition of Taiwan’s status by just about every government in the World
Formal recognition is one thing, the apparent wishes of the population another. Like East Timor perhaps.
Or West Papua.
About 3.5M people, more than half of whom are transmigrasi Indonesians.
Nothing at all to do with the US – MacMoRan – controlled Freeport mine, with one of the largest known gold & copper reserves on this particular planet.
The USA may one day use up the money and lives of Ukrainians, Taiwanese, Australians, anyone, for egotistical, supremacist, righteous, selfish triumph. Triumph for what?
What would the Formosans have said?
If anyone had thought to ask.
I find it funny what the west are doing about Russia,they are doing even worse than the Bolsheviks did in 1917.Confiscation property with out trial because they are supposed to be friends of the leader of Russia.I have no heart for those Carpet baggers ,but the west invited knowing they had looted from the Russia people, the friends of the leaders in western world seen a away to make a killing inviting those Carpet baggies to invest in their countries. To say those business are leaving Russia on their own free will, and losing $ millions is the funniest joke I have heard in my 83 years
All Billionaires, Western, Russian etc, are carpet baggers. We just call them Oligarchs instead of Billionaires if they are Russian to make them seem worse than Western Billionaires.
Yes, ‘oligarchs’ vs ‘successful businessmen’.
So, according to this drivel, the US using its stranglehold over the financial system to achieve its geopolitical objectives indicates the benign ‘rules-based international order’, but China (et al) trying to protect themselves from this unfair stranglehold indicates an evil aggressive intent. I think this is called sociopathic thinking. As an article in Crikey it might be considered comedy, if it were not so tragic.