Russia shows no signs of calling off its invasion in Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signalling an expansion of its territorial aims from the east to also include parts of the south.
Across the country, cities have been flattened and key infrastructure destroyed. In regions on the frontline, the attacks have been relentless as each side makes small gains in civilian areas.
It’s a humanitarian disaster. With men of fighting age not permitted to leave the country, many residents chose to stay to protect their homes, while some returned home after fleeing. They’re living among the rubble.
It’s also a strategic disaster: Ukraine’s domestic infrastructure and economy are key to its efforts to sustain the war against Russia, with one expert calling for humanitarian assistance to focus on reconstruction — especially as the West starts to look away.
Reconstruction ‘can’t wait’ until war ends
Donetsk is a crucial region in Russia’s offensive. After failing to capture Kyiv in the initial weeks of the war, Russia focused its efforts in the east and is attempting to advance from Kherson and Donetsk, where attacks have been near constant.
With Donetsk, Russia would control the entire Donbas region and could annex the eastern part of the country. Amid ongoing sieges, residents often have to go without water and electricity, worsened by water scarcity in the city thanks to a centralised and inefficient supply system.
Michael Shoebridge, director of defence, strategy and national security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, tells Crikey that rebuilding critical infrastructure should be the focus of countries delivering humanitarian aid.
“Russian attacks haven’t just been on a front line, they’ve been against civilians and civilian infrastructure. That’s a traumatic thing for the whole population … but it’s also a factor that makes it harder to wage war,” he said.
Shoebridge said the world needed to examine the effect of the civilian destruction and casualties, and that countries supporting Ukraine should look at reconstruction and humanitarian assistance now — rather than after the war ends.
If international parties began protecting reconstruction, he said, Russia would be put in a difficult position by attacking the forces of multiple nations, especially if the United Nations brought in its peacekeeping “blue helmet” soldiers.
“How does a country sustain a war when it’s going through trauma and destruction?” he said.
“Reconstruction can’t wait till the war finishes.”
No peace to keep
Deputy head of ANU’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Associate Professor Garth Pratten tells Crikey that Russia’s brutality and resolve over Ukraine meant peacekeeping or humanitarian missions were dangerous.
“We shouldn’t use humanitarian efforts as a war deterrent, because you’re going to put a whole bunch of humanitarian workers who are by nature going to be non-military [in danger],” he said.
Humanitarian workers can become a target, with members of the UN’s blue helmets killed in Mali last year and white helmet humanitarians in Syria directly targeted by the Assad regime in 2019.
“Russia has already demonstrated that it’s quite willing to just ignore the established rules and norms of the international system without any great degree of discernment,” he said.
The war of attrition has been devastating, but Pratten said it wasn’t unusual for wars to wipe out entire regions — from Western Allies dropping bombs in civilian areas of Germany in World War II to full-scale destruction in Syria, the Balkans and Chechnya.
“Ukraine at some point in time is going to have to be rebuilt,” he said.
“But it’s going to be a massive job, which is going to take more than a humanitarian mission. It’s going to take the involvement of large multinational construction companies funded by big bank accounts from contributing countries.”
While the war drags on, Pratten said there was a question on how long Western nations will keep up their support.
The world is starting to look away
The world’s attention is starting to shift away from Ukraine. Bombardments haven’t stopped, but the global public is increasingly focused on other issues including inflation, local natural disasters and COVID-19.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be banking on this, with the CIA saying Putin believes America will lose interest and resolve the war through its “attention deficit disorder”.
For humanitarian worker Gary, who asked for his surname not to be used, support is already waning. A former UK military personnel, he established Project Phoenix, a charity organisation that links up NGOs with aid workers and supplies, acting as a networker and communicator.
He told Crikey a key concern for locals was education — many kids had lost education due to COVID-19 lockdowns and were calling for better infrastructure to help them learn.
The humanitarian response had also “died down”, he said, with funding becoming “very dry”.
“I don’t think [donations] have ever been able to keep up. When you look at the sheer volume of the requirements, [donations are] almost a drop in the ocean,” he said.
Gary added that while many large NGOs were well funded, they failed to get where they were most needed and were slow to respond to local needs. Smaller organisations, he said, had better links with communities and were able to deploy faster.
He called for allied countries to diversify their donations and urged the world not to look away from the invasion.
The worst destruction is in the Russian occupied areas where most Russian speakers also live and who are generally more sympathetic to Russia. Ukraine chose to fight from the cities ensuring near total destruction. If Russia permanently occupies the Russian speaking regions, Ukraine are happy to leave scorched earth behind for Russia. This article also neglects the constant shelling of the breakaway Donbas region by Ukraine during the past 8 years which has caused massive damage. Over 3000 civilians killed which approx 80% are from the breakaway regions. This war is not something that stated this year. It has been a civil war since 2014.
The goodies and baddies are not as clear-cut as the media would like us to think they are. It is a very complex situation.
There is a Patrick Lancaster news report from a few weeks ago where he gets caught up by Ukrainian shelling of a village near Donetsk. He takes shelter in a house occupied by a middle aged woman. She is totally unfazed by the shells blowing up around her house and neighbourhood because she says she is used to it after 8 years of regular bombardment by Ukrainians. Whilst he is in mortal fear cowering and ducking behind furniture as the bombardment continues she is casually making him a cup of tea. This is a civilian area and no military targets present.
This story flies in the face of a lot of reports out of Ukraine, UK, and USA, who clearly don’t want people to know about
“Not as clear-cut as the media would like us to think”?
What does who want us to think, though?
Russian state media is running a particular clear-cut narrative, which is being supported by affiliated media in the West (see Tucker Carlson and Fox News).
And yes, Western media (private, state and subscription-owned) is largely (but not exclusively) running an alternative narrative focussing largely on the Russian invasion of Ukraine rather than the Ukrainian attempt to repel that invasion.
You’re right, it’s more complex than news organisation report, but I think that’s a critique that can be levelled at the media worldwide, not just the media in certain jurisdictions.
Might be worth following the money to ascertain which news organisations are likely to report which line.
“After failing to capture Kyiv in the initial weeks of the war, Russia focused its efforts in the east”
Very disappointing that the article still states this as fact, when other reports have said that this was just a Russian strategy to engage Ukraine soldiers, before focusing their main efforts in the South East.
Recent reports are that this was part of the failed peace talks and the withdrawal was intended to show goodwill.
Does Zelensky know what Peace Talks are?
Peace Talks are normally a Negotiation, but Zelensky does not negotiate, he will not concede anything. Meanwhile more of his population are being killed, injured or displaced, and more of his Infrastructure is being destroyed.
“More of his population are being killed, injured or displaced, and more of his Infrastructure is being destroyed”.
Why? Because Zelensky “does not negotiate”?
Nice. Someone starts killing your citizens and bombing your infrastructure, sit down for negotiations with them and tell them they can have half of what they want.
And what if you give them half and they start killing your citizens and bombing your infrastructure again? Give them another half?
Doesn’t leave you a lot, does it?
And have you see the size of Russia?
And Mearsheimer states outright that Putin is too smart to try to occupy western Ukraine. It’s costly in troops and materiel. They want the east which speaks Russian and is often seeing them in a good light. Eventually Odessa and the whole Black Sea coast. The basic premise of this article is misguided.
Russia has achieved the main aim of hiving off the Russian areas east of the Dnieper, the Azov Sea is now an internal waterway and, if they want Odessa for neatness sake it is there to be had.
Even the wardrum beaters such as NYT & Guardian have become less frenetic as they realise they’ve been on the wrong end of history, yet again.
When the current heat domes dissipates, the great General Winter, who has served them well for centuries, is likely to demonstrate to the yapping US poodles of the effete EU that it is not amused – without needing to do a thing but watch the calendar pages swirl away into winter, as in one of those old b&w movies.
First things first, the West needs to provide humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Afghanistan before Ukraine. After all, the West caused the destruction in Afghanistan.
Agree. And prioritise our refugee intake to accept Afghans.
And what do the wouldbe reconstructors do with the unreconstructed Taliban???
Their system of Government is none of our business. The West has done enough damage.
No, the West won’t do reconstruction in Afghanistan until the Russians do. And the Russians won’t do reconstruction in Afghanistan until the British do.
In the middle of a war you should only rebuild infrastructure needed to continue fighting the war. Why rebuild anything else when the Russians might bomb it to bits again the following day?
Hospitals would have both immediate and long-term benefits. Schools… well, they’d need to be well out of range.
There is nothing in Ukraine out of range
Anyone who quotes the CIA as a reliable source has rocks in their head. Read Jeffrey Sachs, Scott Ritter, John Mearsheimer, Aaron Mate and not Amber Schultz for a real read on the Ukraine war.
UK terrain consists of “mostly rugged hills and low mountains; level to rolling plains in east and southeast”. – https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-kingdom/
Jeez, these rocks hurt every time I nod in agreement.
Not forgetting its branch office & fully owned subsidiary here, the ASPI which supplied about a quarter of the boilerplate verbiage in this piece.