As the health reform debate gears up from lunchtime today, that gurgling sound in the background is the death rattle of federalism as a political philosophy of any force in Australia.  A short memorial service, led by Greg Craven, will be held at a time and venue to be advised.

You still get the infrequent commentator or politician who wants to argue for competitive federalism.  Jonathan Pincus continues to push that barrow.  Lawrence Springborg declared in November that the LNP believed in competitive and co-operative federalism (the constitutional equivalent of country and western). But the Prime Minister’s proposal to centralise hospital funding will, in sheer dollar terms, leave a gaping hole in the venerable ideal of a federalist system.

The list of suspects for who killed federalism is long and, like Murder on the Orient Express, they all did it.  John Howard and the High Court he appointed head the list, having initiated and facilitated, respectively, the greatest centralisation of power ever seen in Australia (although as Wayne Errington points out in his excellent short essay for Peter Van Onselen’s Liberals & Power, Howard’s centralism was pragmatic and driven by an activist agenda, not as an end in itself).  Labor governments, particularly in NSW, have seriously damaged the state government brand through poor management and under-investment.  Labor and the Coalition party machines are also responsible, serving up poor-quality MPs at state level and, in the Liberals’ case, being unable to maintain internal unity.

And ultimately the commitment of both sides of politics to economic reform and reducing costs for business has inevitably led to the push to harmonise regulatory and taxation frameworks across the country.

Those few remaining federalists holed up in backwoods shacks with rifles and canned food can’t look to Tony Abbott, either.  In his book Battlelines, the only area where Abbott seriously departs from John Howard is on federalism — and he thinks Howard didn’t go far enough.  Then again, Abbott has the commendable trait of changing his mind regularly on fundamental issues, so he may yet turn out to be a determined states’ rightist.

Don’t get your hopes up for “health reform” — and the term should be used very loosely — yielding major health benefits or even the sort of dynamic economic benefits that, as Andrew Podger has noted, should flow from eliminating or reducing multiple government funders of health programs.  No one has clean hands in this process.  If you were sickened by the sight of big polluters coming in for their chop on the CPRS, wait til you see state governments lining up to insist they need more funding. Victoria has already done it, insisting there be no actual reform, just more money for it. And the health sector, led by the doctor’s union, will mobilise to grab a share of any extra funding that may be going.

Nor is Kevin Rudd coming to this process with honest intentions, given the  health debate is the outcome of his political strategy to damage the Howard Government while in Opposition and he appears determined to manufacturer a showdown with unpopular state governments on an issue where the public is convinced they’ve been poorly served locally.  To this end, the more the states scream blue murder, the better for Rudd.

And Tony Abbott appears to have changed his mind on health centralisation and, having championed it when Health Minister, now seems set to oppose the Government’s proposals, regardless of what they actually are — apparently there has been an entire turnover of public servants in the past two years, and all the ones who effectively ran Abbott’s programs when he was Minister for Health have been supplanted by bungling Labor incompetents. This means any good policy that might accidentally emerge from the scrum of rentseekers, vested interests and politicians on the make will be opposed in the Senate, bringing that lunatic Steve Fielding into play.

You’ve seen all the tricks and scams before during the ETS debate — the threats and pleas, the dodgy “independent modelling”, the self-interest disguised as the public interest, all run through a compliant media.  Only this time all the participants pretend that they’re deeply concerned about Australians’ health and wellbeing.