You have to feel for the politicians and central bankers a bit: they need to deal with what is plainly an emergency, while appearing nonchalant, so as not to scare everyone and make it worse.
For example, the G7 finance ministers held a much-anticipated meeting about Europe last night, while saying it was just an ordinary conference call. Nothing was announced. A spokesman for the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs commissioner, Olli Rehn said later that it was “just part of the regular exchanges”. No big deal; move along please.
Spain’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, is refusing to make a direct plea for help from Europe’s bailout funds because he fears spooking the markets even more than they are already, leading to a politically damaging formal rescue, even though it is plain to all that Spain needs rescuing so it can rescue its banks.
The Australian Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 0.25% yesterday, mentioning the problems in Europe, but concluding soothingly that the rate cut was happening because the outlook for inflation “afforded scope” for it.
Economists had earlier predicted a 0.25% cut because to do 0.5% would have seemed panicky, so best not.
The Treasurer Wayne Swan then tried to spin it as being a good thing, as if the RBA only cuts interest rates when the economy is going nicely. Yes, it is good for borrowers that the cash rate is 3.5%, but not so good for savers, and definitely not good that a rate cut is needed.
Plain speaking is at a premium at the moment because political polls have a habit of following stock markets up and down, and more substantially, a 10% decline in the equity market has been found to trim GDP by 0.5-1% because of the wealth effect.
The plain truth is that while the global financial system had a conniption in 2008 because of the bursting of the bubble in US housing, subprime mortgages and fancy derivatives based on them, a bigger goose was in the oven, cooking, and is now cooked.
That particular fowl is the fact that European Monetary Union doesn’t work. It’s not even a bubble really, except perhaps in the false dreams of unity. The single currency did nothing more than provide the illusion of homogeneity where none exists and could never exist, but unfortunately the banks were sucked in by it and lent as if all euro borrowers were equal.
They are not, and as with the American banks in 2007-08, they suddenly have insufficient capital.
And now the world is on the hook, as it was in 2008, because banking is borderless; Australia’s banks get 30% of their funds from Europe, but money there is being rationed and the price has gone up.
American companies have huge exposure to Europe, and more and more of them are now warning investors that sales are suffering.
There is a fantasy doing the rounds that EMU will work if only there would be a fiscal union as well, with eurobonds financing national deficits and a real central bank recapitalising the banks, all funded by, um, well … Germany.
Really? Greece and Spain are going to cede their sovereignty to Germany? They would rather, I’d suggest, declare bankruptcy. The euro cannot last in its present form because the countries that make it up are too different.
For Australia this means nothing very good, apart from, perhaps, a lower currency. Interest rates will be cut further while at same time credit is rationed — there is, and will be for a while, a sort of low-interest rate credit squeeze for businesses accompanied by reduced demand for household mortgages.
As discussed here on Monday, there is a long-term bubble in safe assets keeping bond yields low, and a structural bear market in risk assets. Neither of these things will end in a hurry.
*This article was first published at Business Spectator
The Australian economy was in trouble way before any issues in Greece or Europe. There is a complete lack of confidence with business and consumers, and complete distrust of this Labor Government.
When an election is called, it will change, in the meantime, it will bump along the bottom.
Blah, blah blah more blinkered commentary from the self interested econofops. Adam Smith correctly described the entire phenomenon as the result of the whole economy being subjugated to the interests of bank shareholders. If any of the clowns, well the whole industry is a well established global joke isn’t it, are interested they can read about it in “An Inquiry Into The Origin and Causes Of The Wealth Of Nations”. A bit of belated, related reading might not go astray. But this crew are as insouicant as
the pre-revolution French Aristocracy who themselves were swept away by a financial crisis of their
own making. So roll out the Guillotines of economic reality and speed these dinosaurs to their inevitable doom. The world will be well rid of their posturing, ignorant prattle.
For more remedial reading try “The French Revolution” by the foremost Victorian historical novellist
Thomas Carlyle, or even go so far as to consider George Bernard Shaw’s truism that “The expert is,
in the truest sense, an idiot”, the source of this Global Economic Idiot Show now coming to its sorry
and inevitable conclusion. Thanks a lot fellahs for all your fine efforts.
These Europeans need some advice from the Treasurer of the year. If anyone can run get a country out of debt, surely it’s he. Oh, wait…
The Howard-Costello, feel-good, credit card economy was in real trouble way before any issues in Greece or Europe. That was a path of no return unrecognised by the economic illiterates yearning
for a forlorn reprisal of a “Golden Era” built on unsustainable then and unsustainable now private
sector debt which is Abbott’s strategy for a Depression we do not have to have if the economic illiterate is kept out of power. But go for it SB, embrace your doom! Follow your feelings! Don’t let
rationality disturb your received truths. ” I’m so unhappy becuase I don’t like Julia Boo Hoo!”.
When will these “feeling” fascists ever grow up and start behaving like responsible adult citizens of a real democracy?
There is nothing “liberal” about you or Abbott, SB.
Re moderation Is it not an established historical truth that those delivering machine gun like accusations of communism at all and sundry of their political opponents are and were “FASCISTS”!!?
And that the the “Soviet-Nazi theory of Totalitarianism” was anticipated in medieval discipline of the Papal Inquisition? GG Coulton, “Medieval Panorama-The Horizons of Thought” published 1938.
So get a grip, moderators, history has not been so extensively re-written as to exclude the sacrifices of
Australians against “Fascism” in WWII no matter how inconvenient it may be to the DLP stooges and
their notorious post-war Nazi refugee allies. Or we may have a very good excuse to look askance at your
“moderation” criteria for offence against Australian national values? Get a grip!