That Russia and Ukraine have come to the brink of war in just a few short days is obvious enough. What is less obvious is not the quickly evolving events that might unfold over the next days and weeks but Russia’s end game.
As with its negotiations over the Syrian civil war last September, Russia is playing an adept game of strategic chess. While Russia has its game planned well in advance, the West is only just coming to terms with the next move.
Underlying Russia’s positioning on Ukraine, and key to its ability to fob off Western protestations, is its longer-term plan to establish a Eurasian Union to rival that of the European Union. As a significant regional economy, Ukraine is critical to the success of Russia’s bid to counter the EU, which is why Russia is insistent it remains within its strategic sphere.
Russia also stations its strategically important Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol, which under a deal signed by ousted President Viktor Yanukovych it leases until 2042.
In one sense, Russia’s Eurasian Union is a reinvention of the economic relations within the former Soviet Union. In another sense, however, it is an economic reinvention of the pre-Soviet Russian Empire. Either way, Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to restore Russia to an international greatness corresponding to that prior to the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Russia has already sent 6000 troops without insignia to Crimea in southern Ukraine, ostensibly as “local patriots”. These are to protect its naval base at Sevastopol and in support of ethnic Russians unhappy with the recent ousting of Yanukovych, who is pro-Russian. The Ukrainian government has said such moves could lead to war between the two countries.
A war between Russia and Ukraine would be bloody and vastly destructive; if Ukraine struck quickly it could achieve an initial strategic advantage. Similarly, if Russia invades it will be a long, bloody and costly conflict. Neither country wants to go down the path of direct conflict.
If Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s assertions, expected at least to be for a pro-Russia economic policy as agreed to by Yanukovych, Russia will assist ethnic Russians in Ukraine’s south and east to declare themselves independent from Ukraine. Ukraine could respond militarily to such separatism but would, by definition, then be involved in a war within its borders; Russia would have punished Ukraine without having become directly involved.
The solution to this situation would be a divided Ukraine suing for peace, the conditions of which would be greater autonomy for ethnic Russian regions and the economic obeisance of Ukraine to Russia’s Eurasian Union.
The United States and the EU are deeply concerned at current events and have made angry noises. Ukraine has requested NATO’s intervention. But while the EU would like Ukraine to become economically closer, the EU and the US do not critically need Ukraine, and NATO will, consequently, not go to war over it.
It is highly likely that, should events continue to unfold as they seem, the EU and the US will push for economic sanctions against Russia, but this then starts to play to Russia’s longer game. Russia supplies about a third of all of the EU’s oil and almost 40% of its gas. The balance of trade between Russia and the EU goes approximately 3:2 in Russia’s favour. In short, Russia needs the EU oil and gas market, but the EU needs Russia’s oil and gas even more. Trade may reduce, but Russia will survive.
More to the point, with Russia moving to consolidate its Eurasian Union as a balance to the EU, keeping Ukarine within its orbit and reducing reliance on the EU is part of Putin’s longer game. That this might well result in a new iteration of the Cold War would simply be testament to Putin’s vision of Russia’s return to international greatness.
Turmoil in Ukraine may continue and events, unfolding quickly, are not entirely predictable. But if Russian President Vladimir Putin is acting in a supremely confident manner over this conflict, as has been noted by some observers, it is because Russians play chess very well.
*Professor Damien Kingsbury is director of the Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights at Deakin University
“To protect Russian speakers” is about as scary as it can be. will this apparent legitimisation of a brand new “causus belli” apply to Cantonese, Spanish & English speakers too?
The Russian troops on the ground are apparently not being challenged. Can anybody see this happening if they went into Germany or Hawaii? No. And they’d never go into these countries anyway.
I’d be interested in how many Ukrainian military commanders are ex Soviet commanders? If they choose not to fight, then I’d be reckoning no-one else has any pressing reason (other than high moral ground) to do so.
When the Vikings first populated the area they called ‘Rus’ in the eighth century, they did so by sailing around Gibraltar from their Scandinavian homelands, through the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and up the Dnieper River where they established their capital at what is now Kiev. One could say that the Russians have a long history within that region though this alone does not give them justification for any armed conflict.
However, as I have pointed out previously, the Ukrainian uprising was achieved mainly by far right groups aided an abetted by the USA and EU and whose main claim to fame is ultra-nationalism, a virulent hatred of Russia and and equally virulent hatred of Judaism. This can be seen by two pieces of law proposed by these groups in the last week; one banning the Russian language, thus marginalising their substantial Russian minority and the other banning Judaism with the expressed desire to remove all Jews from the Ukraine.
In addition, until the break up of the USSR, the Eastern Ukraine was a part of the USSR and was not recognised as Ukrainian. Given that the USSR as it was suffered enormously from the depredations of the Nazis one could excuse the Russians of being somewhat leery of anyone professing a similar philosophy, especially when that someone (a) lives next door, (b) uses symbols of the Nazis including their salutes (but with their left arm, not their right as did the Nazis) and marches under a very fair facsimile of the SS flag and (c) actively promotes armed rebellion (a ‘blackshirt revolution’ as described by Moscow) against the pro Russian government and their fellow Russian speaking citizens.
While I am not promoting Putin (heaven forbid, the man’s a dictator!) nor Russia, I am suggesting that their is more to this than we are being told so to hear our beloved leader carry on as he does about this merely reinforces my opinion of him as being a very limp sock puppet. And before we go rushing off on another Conservative led war, we should look very closely at those we could be fighting for.
I don’t think it will come to that but there is a rising tide of fascism within Europe which many commentators see as being translated to 20% of the EU Parliament at the next elections. I think we here should look closely at this and refuse to be drawn into any further stupidity in Europe like we were to our detriment exactly 100 years ago.
And in regards to this article by Professor Kingsbury I thank him for educating me further in the complexities of the situation and agree that the Russians will be the eventual winners in this situation and that hopefully we will not be eating the fruits of a thermonuclear war as many fear.
I’d be interested in a more detailed piece by Damian, putting current events in the context of WW11 and remaining enmity between the right and left-wing in Ukraine. I’ve read some material saying the people who toppled Yanukovych are the fascists of the olden days, raising the spectre of Ukraine’s participation in the massacre of its Jewish population. The debate seemed to be that one has to pick sides. Isn’t it possible that for the average Ukrainian, neither choice is satisfactory?
@ puddleduck Like you, I have read and heard that the forces arraigned against Yanukovych are composed mostly of neo-nazis and the extreme right. Can’t see the Russian sectors in the Ukraine agreeing to be ruled by these types of people.
Am also a little puzzled that Russia is getting stick for protecting its’ military assets in the Crimea, where it appears they have an agreement to remain for the best part of 30 years. So far, they have not attempted to ‘take-over’ anything.
How come the western powers have their knickers in a knot over this, yet nothing is said about Israel taking over whole areas in the West Bank, which clearly don’t belong to them, and they have no right to be in?
A little consistency from the federal government and our allies wouldn’t go astray!!