A leaked Five Eyes report, a missing graduate student and an alleged cover-up by Chinese authorities: theories and conspiracies on the origin and spread of COVID-19 are running rampant, amplified by US politicians and Australian journalists.
So how did these theories start, and which ones hold their weight?
The theories
There are two main theories on COVID-19’s origin: that it came from animals, or that it was developed in a lab.
Previous coronavirus strains, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) were found to originate in bats.
But for a virus to jump from a bat to a human, it needs an intermediate host. Back in January, it was thought this host was a snake: snakes eat bats and were sold at the Wuhan wet market where the virus originated.
In April, a new theory emerged: pangolins, scaly anteaters, were the culprit. Two weeks ago, Germany’s leading COVID-19 expert Christian Drosten has also flagged a new theory — that the virus passed through raccoon dogs, which are widely sold in China for their fur.
Zoonotic transmission isn’t the only theory out there: a popular claim is the virus originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, with patient zero infected in the lab before the virus made it into the public.
China has responded with its own theory: that the virus originated in the US and was brought to China by the US army.
The claims and the counterclaims
The zoonotic transmission theory has the most amount of scientific evidence: coronaviruses have been around for a long time with multiple studies conducted. Evidence shows the coronavirus which caused the 2003 SARS pandemic passed from bat to civet, while the strain which caused MERS jumped from bats to camels.
The scientific consensus is that the virus that causes COVID-19 originated in horseshoe bats.
How a virus could survive in both cold and warm-blooded animals was a mystery, and the World Health Organisation (WHO) cast doubt in February over whether snakes could have been the intermediate host
Lung samples of Malaysian pangolins have been found to share 91% of their genetic sequence with COVID-19. The jury is out on pangolins, raccoon dogs and other animals.
So how about the lab theories? This theory has been touted by Fox host Tucker Carlson, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and President Donald Trump. The Washington Post revealed the US government had expressed concerns since 2015 about safety standards and experiments — including bat coronaviruses — escaping from the lab.
Last week Daily Telegraph political editor Sharri Markson authored a story on a leaked report from the Five Eyes intelligence agencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and US, stating the agency was looking at the work of two senior scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Both scientists had studied in Australia.
Adding fuel to the flame is the alleged disappearance of graduate student Huang Yanling. She was rumoured on social media to be patient zero at the lab and was accused of reselling lab animals to wet market vendors. References to Yanling were scrubbed from the Chinese social media site Weibo and the lab’s website.
But the leaked Five Eyes report was more than three months old. In a separate story, Markson wrote the Australian government believes the chance the virus came from a lab was 5%. The Five Eyes network has also contradicted the theory, though it has raised concerns about China’s lack of transparency.
In March, Shi Zhengli, a virologist at the Wuhan lab, spoke to the media explaining her research and concern that COVID-19 did leak from her lab. But genetic sequence testing shows COVID-19 did not match any viruses her lab previously tested.
The WHO has also stressed the virus is believed to be “natural in origin“.
As for the theory the US created the virus, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of support: it originated from Lijian Zhao, a spokesman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs with a large Twitter following. Chinese state-run newspaper the Global Times has also reported the source of the virus remains undetected.
The facts
- First symptoms of COVID-19 were recorded on December 1, with a patient seeking medical help for pneumonia-like symptoms on December 8 in Wuhan
- Four cases of a “pneumonia of unknown etiology” were reported in hospitals in the Hubei province on December 29
- Samples from infected individuals arrived at Wuhan Institute of Virology on December 30
- The WHO was alerted by Chinese authorities on December 31. The next day, the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market — identified as a suspected centre of the outbreak — was closed
- The virus spread to Thailand on January 13. Three days later, Japan reported its first case
- Chinese officials secretly determined they were likely facing a pandemic on January 14, but only warned the public six days later on January 20. During that time, millions of people started travelling for Lunar New Year celebrations, while the city of Wuhan hosted a banquet for tens of thousands of people
- Two days later, the WHO met to discuss whether to declare the outbreak an international health emergency. The next day, the WHO decided not to declare the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)
- On January 24, China extended travel restrictions or quarantines to 12 cities. On January 25 a doctor treating COVID-19 patients died from the virus in Wuhan. That same day, Australia confirmed its first case
- By March 11, the WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic.
Where do Trump and Pompeo get their intelligence from? FUX News?
As for Markson peddling old gossip (while “disclosing” that) – isn’t that what Rupert pays her (and the rest of his Muppet Army) for?
I’m often reminded of what Andrew Elder said of Sharri Markson: “Brynne Edelsten, without the wit, talent or news sense”.
This is a really clear and helpful description and chronology, but should include the key fact that the WHO did declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 Jan (WHO website). As I understand it, the PHEIC is the trigger for national health authorities to take action as they choose, the pandemic declaration is just a rhetorical device.
In 2017, the World Health Organization reluctantly admitted that the global polio explosion is predominantly a vaccine strain, meaning it is coming from Gates’ Vaccine Program.
The blind trust in WHO is beyond comprehension. Why don’t you people research this? Staggering.
One only has to know that if Trump, Carlson and Pompeo are ruching a theory, it is almost certain to be bullish*t.
And now further complicating identification of the origin, is the story in today’s Guardian that a French hospital has re-tested samples taken from patients in December 2019 and found that one of the patients had COVID-19.
I love the story that it originated in the US and those “vaping lung disease” cases in the US last summer were covid, then US soldiers took it to the World Military Games in Wuhan in October. The closing ceremony was 3 weeks before 19 November which is the retrospectively calculated date of the first Chinese covid case.
Not true of course, but the truth is getting pretty boring and we need more stories!
You need more stories ?…..One doing the rounds (around this neck of the backwoods -which will remain unsaid ) is that Dan Andrews is keeping Victoria shutdown so his Chinese mates can buy it out for a song ,…Naaah, you really don’t need more stories.