(Image: Gorkie/Private Media)

Well, I must admit I thought she’d make the ton, the centenary. That hardy German stock, those royal and aristocratic genes. She has several relatives who made triple figures. That must be where vampire legends come from — the aristocracy living on and on while everyone dies around them. It would have been worth seeing her hang on for another four years, if only for the spectacle of seeing her send a congratulatory message to herself.

That wouldn’t have happened, of course, but only because the queen was and is indivisible from her role, a form of pre-modern identity persisting into the world of identities fractured within the self. She was who her position was in relation to the rest of us, a reminder that that was how everyone was, a couple of centuries ago, and had been since the dawn of time. For many Brits, and quite a few Commonwealth citizens of all heritages, that totality — fused with her extraordinary longevity — has been a paradoxical embodiment of permanency. She stood at the juncture of nature and culture, of person and nation, of present and past.

It would thus be foolish to underestimate the degree to which she was a figure not merely of history, but of History, not merely for UK and Commonwealth, but for the world. The Atlantic alliance dominates the West, and the British end of the alliance is held in place in part by mystique: by the unity of the UK and by the person of the queen. She took the throne at 25, in an era of limited publicity, especially for royal princesses. Very little was known of her personally. Everything that would come to be known of her would occur during her reign, so it came to be the habits and doings of the monarch, freighted with authority.

That is obviously not the case with King Charles III, who came to adulthood during the transforming period of the 1960s — on the edge of 21 when Woodstock occurred — this liberating him from a dour and dutiful upbringing. That may have been his personal good luck, but it is a disaster for the projection of power and mystery in his reign. He is too much like the boomers he is from, with his enthusiasms for mystical wilderness, the natural aristocracy of still-nomadic First Peoples, the talking-to-plants, the enthusiasms for The Goons, the love life ‘n all. The crazy talk of skipping him altogether and moving straight to William — which seemed to show a basic misunderstanding of the whole hereditary monarchy sort of thing such commentators were trying to preserve — died away instantly, and has become an immediate relic.

But what has died too is republican hopes that the passing of a monarch — one who fulfilled her role unimpeachably — to a man put together by the same history of enthusiasms, foolishnesses and failed obsessions constituting the lives of most of us would provide the opportunity to put the question of monarchy at issue, especially in Australia. Too late! They don’t muck around, these royal families; they know their business. King Charles III is already a thing, and the fact of the office has asserted itself massively. No one cares about the interchangeable European bicycle monarchies, save for the editor of Grazia. The transfer of British monarchic power really mattered to global actual power.

Too late here? Too soon. Our rather ad hoc republican movement was just getting itself together, in the time of the Albanese government, to hustle the question of a republic back onto centre stage. But it can’t be done now as a “when the queen dies…” plebiscite, which would have been the best shot at getting a “yes” vote. King Charles III will rapidly naturalise himself as an inevitable monarch, unless he is really, really stupid, and the notion of a break will recede into the haze. Any move towards Australian republicanism will have to work on the pure fact of monarchy as its object against. Since Australian republicanism has no social base whatsoever, being, from its ’90s revival, a shy creature of the elites, it will most likely get nowhere. The Albanese government, I would guess, is not going to give the Coalition a culture war they rebuild around.

That the Coalition very much would be able to build upon a republic plebiscite is a measure of the weakening of the republican impulse over recent decades. As, over the past decade, post-Cold War modernity has lost its confidence and crashed to the ground, the passion for an enlightenment view of the world has diminished markedly. The assertion that, hey, humanity can run its own affairs has taken a battering through two decades of failed wars, crashes, failed recoveries, the collapse of conventional politics, the rise of conspiracy theories and the failure of populism to deliver.

Thus, the success of the late Queen Elizabeth II was unquestionably partly due to her personal qualities. But the larger share of it was the weakness and inability of the left and progressives to offer an alternative of any meaning and liberation worth the risk of junking something that provided a reasonable amount of both to many.

The left has been unable able to provide an attractive alternative to a society whose grounded meaning has been utterly undermined by the nihilism of capitalism, the market, and the asociality of new technologies. So, bizarrely, it is pre-modern institutions that now offer a limit to that steady annihilation. Any republican relying on a generational uprising against monarchy, or a non-Anglo one, may be in for a rude shock. The snarling and snarking that might be directed at her will simply prove the point. Such attacks are always grounded in envy and defeat, the radicalism of fools.

History lasts a long time. We are, in some ways, in a position that is backward of the heady moment of 1776, when a bunch of American radicals suggested that a nation could be held together by words and ideas alone, rather than the embodiment of a person. That experiment may come crashing down in 2024, as the third Carlite era sails on. At this point we should be thankful that the Russians didn’t bring the tsars back. Maybe this is all the prelude to a great dialectical historical fling forward.

But before you put any money on that, check whose face is on the notes first. Vale Elizabeth Windsor. Perhaps her passing is an occasion for progressives to reflect on what, in their program, they are not offering, or not valuing, that speaks to the human needs that can make a small and compact woman a source of meaning and a force of history.

With the passing of the queen, does republicanism have a chance in Australia? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.